Despite the US administration's unprecedented sympathy toward Taiwan, the incumbent US government has not changed its fundamental cross-strait policies, US academics said yesterday as they wrapped up their shuttle diplomacy across the Strait.
Donald Zagoria, trustee of the National Committee on American Foreign Policy (NCAFP), said the US government has not changed the fundamental policies of the six previous US presidents on the cross-strait issue despite related speculation in Beijing and Taipei over the past year.
"The [George W.] Bush administration has clearly been very sympathetic to Taiwan, intends to treat Taiwan with greater dignity and respect, intends to increase the level of communication with it, and intends to maintain the military balance in the Taiwan Strait," Zagoria said.
"The Bush administration is not changing the fundamental policies of six previous American presidents, which we understand as `the two nos and the one yes,'" Zagoria said.
The `two nos' refer to no use of force by China against Taiwan, and no declaration of independence by Taiwan, whereas the `one yes' is "dialogue and the cultural and economic interactions that will hopefully lead to a peaceful resolution acceptable to both sides," Zagoria said.
Zagoria made the comment yesterday during a press conference held in Taipei that marked the end of the five-day trip by the delegation under the aegis of NCAFP to Taiwan after their visits to Beijing and Shanghai.
Robert Scalapino, professor emeritus at the Institute of East Asian Studies of the University of California, Berkeley, held a similar view.
"It's correct to say that the US ... has indicated more positively than in the past that the defense of Taiwan against attack is likely to be a US obligation," Scalapino said.
"But the US still opposes a declaration of independence by Taiwan, and at the same time opposes the use of force. That position is not new."
Derek Mitchell, a senior fellow at the DC-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), noted, however, that the Bush administration is highly sensitive to China's military threat toward Taiwan.
"The Bush administration is taking more seriously the question of coercion," said Mitchell, noting that the administration is thinking about "the real possibility" of Beijing's military threat to Taipei.
The warming of military exchanges between Washington and Taipei was triggered both by the lessons learnt during the 1996 missile crisis, as well as the perceived increase of China's threat to Taipei in the minds of policy makers in Washington, Mitchell said.
"It's a move towards making sure there is a greater understanding between the two sides on the military front and on the political front given the lessons learnt in 1995 and 1996, when there was a crisis and there were no mechanisms for understanding," Mitchell said.
"An inability necessarily to coordinate our actions is destabilizing," Mitchell said.
"It's also in reaction to what they see as an increase of [military] procurements and maybe a seriousness on the mainland," Mitchell noted.
On US arms sales to Taiwan, Ralph Cossa, president of the Pacific Forum, CSIS, said the current focus should be placed upon how Taiwan is able to incorporate its already acquired arms facilities through internal modernization and joint cooperation among the Taiwan military.
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