Chinese Vice President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤), Jiang Zemin's (江澤民) heir apparent, will be tough on the Taiwan issue during his first US trip, but just as important for him will be a flawless performance to ensure his succession, said an informed foreign observer yesterday.
"Hu will be tough on the Taiwan issue because the Beijing leadership sees his visit as an opportunity to convey their concerns to the highest levels of the US government," noted the observer, who declined to be named.
China watchers have said that Beijing appears alarmed by the George W. Bush administration's moves to boost ties with Taiwan, such as securing Minister of National Defense Tang Yao-ming's (
Some in Beijing also expressed misgivings over comments by US Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz last month on Bush's remark a year ago promising to do "whatever it took" to defend Taiwan in the event of a mainland attack.
A high-ranking government official in Taipei held a slightly different view on Hu's visit, saying: "I don't think he will be overtly tough [on the Taiwan issue].
"Because if he plays too tough, he will offend those currently in power in the US, whereas his top objective for the trip is to socialize with those in power in Washington," the official added.
But the informed analyst from Washington predicted that Hu would be on his best behavior in the US so as not to endanger his succession this autumn.
"Hu will also be careful not to make any mistakes, so as not to jeopardize his prospects during the upcoming Chinese Communist Party's 16th Party Congress," the foreign observer said.
One of Hu's greatest tasks, the informed analyst noted, will be to "placate the conservatives who may think he is willing to change the course of China."
Hu is tipped to take over from Jiang as party chief in autumn and state president next year.
As Hu is scheduled to reach the US on Saturday and will meet Vice President Dick Cheney on May 1, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has set up a task force to monitor his trip in the US.
The Taiwan government source said Taipei's calculation was that Hu's trip would not go so far as to affect the fundamentals underpinning the triangular Beijing-Taipei-Washington relationship.
Although Hu, as heir apparent, is expected to play to his domestic audience by stating his views on certain key issues underpinning Sino-US ties while in Washington, such as the issue of Taiwan, the official said: "To repeat Beijing's official line will be Hu's safest option."
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