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Ruan says Beijing will continue to `divide and rule'

China's upcoming power transfer is likely to be the "smoothest" in Communist China's history, although the new leadership will continue its strategy of dividing Taiwan from within, Chinese scholar Ruan Ming (阮銘) predicted yesterday.

"We expect to see the smoothest power transfer at the upcoming Chinese Communist Party's 16th National Congress in September," Ruan said during a speech at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs yesterday.

"If there's no drastic surprises, the head of the fourth generation of [Communist] Chinese leadership will be Hu Jintao (胡錦濤), who was already appointed by Deng Xiaoping (鄧小平) at the CCP's 14th National Congress," Ruan said.

Discussing the CCP's history, Ruan said that, although Hu has remained a "mysterious" figure in the eyes of outsiders, the fact that he has been able to retain his position as the anointed head of the "fourth generation" over the past 10 years or so, is indicative of his ability and talent.

Although Hu is 16 years younger than Chinese President Jiang Zemin (江澤民) -- the head of the third generation of Communist Chinese leadership -- Hu's credentials within the Forbidden City are no less than that of Jiang, the Chinese dissident said.

Ruan, a visiting professor at Tamkang University and a former special assistant to late CCP secretary-general, Hu Yaobang (胡耀邦), said the power transfer is unlikely to trigger drastic changes in Beijing's policy towards Taiwan.

He predicted that Beijing would continue its strategy of dividing Taiwan from within -- to lure not only pro-reunification political forces, but also moderate members of the ruling DPP.

To fight Beijing's "divide and rule" tactics toward Taiwan, the former CCP member urged politicians in Taipei to "unite to safeguard Taiwan's state sovereignty."

"While Taiwan should keep showing goodwill to China, it must never succumb to China's `one China' rhetoric," Ruan said.

He said that Taiwan's effort to expand its diplomatic influence has passed its "worst time" -- namely during former US President Bill Clinton's administration.

Taiwan should keep improving its foreign relations situation by utilizing its assets -- such as its democracy, economic strength and its strategic geographic position, he urged.

Regarding China's power transfer, Ruan said it's unlikely that Zeng Qinghong (曾慶紅), often seen as one of Jiang's trusted cronies and Hu's immediate "competitor," would threaten Hu's chances in the short term.
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