spanish contender
Madrid, the only major European capital which has never hosted the games, has strong credentials and should count on sizable support from the Latin American bloc in the IOC. But Barcelona hosted the games in 1992, making it difficult for Spain to get the games again so soon.
The Olympics have never been staged in South America, giving Rio a strong selling point with IOC members eager to spread the games around the world. But Brazil's economic and crime problems could be a factor.
New York was once considered a sentimental choice after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks but has a number of handicaps -- reluctance to take the Olympics to North America two years after Vancouver's Winter Games, an absence of natural bloc support and general anti-American sentiment.
This week, British bookmaker William Hill listed London as 6-4 favorite, followed by Paris at 7-4, Madrid 11-2, New York 9-1, Rio 10-1, Leipzig and Moscow 16-1, and Havana and Istanbul at 50-1. But London's favorite status is based on British betting patterns and not inside information.
assessment in may
The immediate question is how many cities will survive the IOC assessment in May.
Rogge has repeatedly said all nine could be retained, breaking with recent practice of eliminating several cities to create a short list of finalists.
If there is a cut, Havana, Leipzig and Istanbul would be likely casualties.
Once the field is finalized, an IOC evaluation commission will visit the cities to inspect the bids and compile a detailed report for IOC members. Since the Salt Lake City scandal, members are barred from visiting bid cities.
Heiberg, who headed the evaluation panel for the 2010 winter bids, said some cities should be dropped to keep the 2012 process manageable.
"I hope the board will reduce the number to four, five or six," he said. "We need to have the courage to do that."
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