The Economic Development Advisory Conference (EDAC) finishes tomorrow and its five panels have reached a consensus on a substantial number of recommendations. So far, the "performance" orchestrated by President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) and incorporates all the political parties, has kept well in key. A closer examination reveals Chen's various strategic considerations.
On the whole, according to observers and the president's close aides, Chen's top priority is to save the economy and to convey the government's determination and pro-activeness. A second aim is to create an atmosphere of political stability and prove that his administration is sophisticated and mature. A third goal, and a political spin-off, is to force the opposition to share responsibility for economic reform and blunt the opposition's criticism during the election campaign.
"The president controls the stage [the EDAC], which is not a government body, to bypass the opposition parties' boycotts, such as their obstruction of the Executive Yuan's policies during the past year," said editor-in-chief of Contemporary magazine, Chin Heng-wei (金恆煒).
"And the EDAC can also be regarded as a realization of the spirit of the presidential system, which Chen advocates strongly and wishes to achieve," Chin added.
Indeed, the president's close aides are not coy about the background against which Chen proposed the EDAC in May. He was anxious about the Executive Yuan's failure to come up with effective measures to revive the economy and he hoped to form a channel for dialogue between the opposition and ruling parties through economic issues.
In particular, after the decision to scrap the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant was reversed in February, Chen appeared to have achieved little success in the diplomatic arena. "As a result, economic and domestic issues relating to Taiwan's development became vital for the DPP if it was to retain any hope of victory in the year-end elections," one close aide to the president told the Taipei Times.
The aide said Chen was very concerned about creating an atmosphere of political stability in many decision-making meetings prior to his trip to Latin America in late May.
"The president wants to demonstrate to the public that A-bian's administration can deal with politics maturely and create a stable environment, which gives people something to hope for," the aide said.
Chen and his aides are well aware of how the KMT always played the "stability card" (安定牌) during its decades of rule and now that the DPP is in power it must use this card to its own advantage.
"This is the main strategy for staying in power. If people do not believe in the leader's ability, any other tactic during the election will be of little use," the aide said.
In short, the EDAC was staged by the Presidential Office to allow the opposition parties and the Executive Yuan to sit down and talk, the aide said. Chen commands the "highest point" and arbitrates the "negotiations" between the two sides.
Chen has carefully monitored developments at the EDAC for fear that the only political stage on which to perform before the year-end election may collapse.
During preparations for the conference in July, for example, some ministries drew their bottom lines, for which they tried to seek Chen's approval prior to the conference. For that reason, Chen had to declare publicly that: "The executive branch does not have veto power over the EDAC's consensus."
This was to set the tone for the EDAC and to convince the opposition that "it is for real this time."
But trouble was still to come -- from no less a source than the Presidential Office itself. Last week Vice President Annette Lu (呂秀蓮), at the request of senior pro-independence figures, lashed out at the EDAC's cross-strait panel for proposing to lift the ban on direct links and to modify the "no haste, be patient" policy.
In addition to her outright objection to the panel's proposal, she called on the group and the president to "consult their consciences."
Had Chen not come forward instantly to endorse the EDAC's proposals, the aide believes, the opposition and media probably would have created a storm over the incident, saying that Chen and Lu are playing a game of "good cop, bad cop."
When it comes to adjusting cross-strait policies, the various authorities will "listen to the president and put up a good show together," the aide said. But this show was not to be "a duet between Chen and Lu" but will be an "A-bian one-man show," the aide said.
According to the aide, the operational procedures of the Mainland Affairs Council, National Security Bureau and other relevant departments "have been under the total control of the Presidential Office."
The aide put it directly: "The EDAC is just one of the steps toward the adjustment of cross-strait economic and trade policies."
When Chen put forward "pro-active openness and effective management" in place of the "no haste, be patient" policy at the end of last year, it was actually nothing more than a policy declaration. The study and formulation of concrete measures to flesh out the policy was delegated to government departments.
The aide admitted that "the EDAC, with the endorsement of all political parties, is the best shield for Chen to resist protests from pro-independence elements and from within the DPP.
Still, Chen needs to accommodate the feelings of senior pro-independence figures. Therefore he has made it clear to them that "it is impossible to adjust the whole set of cross-strait policies immediately."
"To be sure, that would require a variety of conditions to coexist. But it is important, at this point in time, to show people that the government is proactive and determined."