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No breakthrough in sight for the cross-strait tussle

In the wake of US President George W. Bush's three-nation Asia tour, local analysts say that while the cross-strait situation is currently stable, any major breakthrough between the two sides is unforeseeable in the near future.

Bao Tzong-ho (包宗和), a political scientist at National Taiwan University, said the harmonious nature of the visit shows how Bush's foreign policy has undergone a transition from being highly unilateral to one that is more neutral.

During his visit to Beijing, Bush announced that Chinese President Jiang Zemin (江澤民) and Jiang's heir apparent, Vice President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) had accepted invitations to the US.

Bao said the announcement shows how Sino-US relations were strengthened during the visit.

"The harmonious atmosphere, however, doesn't mean that Bush will abandon his strong stance toward China," Bao said.

Bush was viewed warily by China when he assumed office in January 2000 because of his hawkish foreign policy stance and statements that China should be viewed as a "strategic competitor" rather than a "strategic partner."

"After the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, the immediate support and cooperation to help the war against terrorism from the Chinese government gave a fresh start to rebuild the bilateral relationship between China and the US" said Johan Chiu (裘兆琳), a research fellow at Academia Sinica.

But Bush has not forgotten Taiwan, Chiu said.

Bush's reaffirmation of the Taiwan Relations Act during his trip "is a clear message that the US will protect Taiwan," Chiu said.

"The purpose of the reiteration of [the act], is that the US wanted to make sure China would not misjudge US' intentions despite the friendly interaction between Bush and Jiang," Chiu said.

It is that commitment to the Taiwan Relations Act that secures the safety of the Taiwan Strait, which is in accordance with the US' strategic interests, Chiu said.

"Bush's neutral position shows Bush's two-handed policy" Bao said.

"On the one hand, the US is trying to have a closer relationship with China by considering the common interests shared by the two nations. On the other hand, the US raises the issue of China's proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and, at the same time, agreed that the new Minister of National Defense Tang Yao-ming (湯曜明) should be allowed to attend a defense conference to be held early next month in the US."

Bao and Chiu concluded that under Bush's current policy, Taiwan's safety is ensured.

"But since the US tends to keep good relations with China and Taiwan at the same time, and Bush avoided putting too much pressure on the Taiwan issue, there were no signs that a major breakthrough in cross-strait relations is likely in the near future," Bao said.
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