Bush's Taiwan comments clues to Beijing visit

The US will let China know that the act is a "cornerstone" of US Taiwan policy, Rice told reporters last week.

Where china will push

China will also likely try to get Bush to say publicly that his administration opposes any move by the government of President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) toward a unilateral declaration of independence. China tried unsuccessfully to elicit such a statement when Bush was in Shanghai for the APEC summit in October.

Bush's statement at last week's interview probably hinted at the way he will respond. He said that both sides should deal with Taiwan "honestly and have an open dialogue on the subject" when he meets Chinese President Jiang Zemin (江澤民) and other officials.

"I have always said, as have other [US] presidents, that the idea is to have peaceful resolution of this important issue. And I emphasize ... that there should be no provocation by either side, in order for their to be peaceful resolution," Bush said.

Significantly, China's Vice For-eign Minister Li Zhaoxing (李肇星), in a speech in Washington two weeks ago, urged the US to support "peaceful reunification," a position Bush will obviously not take.

So, little new on Taiwan is expected to come out of the meetings. "The two sides are going to talk past each other," noted David Shambaugh, the director of the China Policy Program at George Washington University, last week.

Analysts also said that not much else on other topics will emerge either.

"This is going to be a cultivation exercise -- an opportunity for the two sides to get to know one another all the better," said Bates Gill, a China scholar at the Brookings Institution, noting that the trip is a "working meeting," not a state summit event.

In any event, Taiwan will cast a shadow over the sessions. Somewhat overlooked in the run-up to Bush's trip was a brief, almost offhand, comment he made toward the end of his radio address.

"In our spirit of friendship and cooperation," he said, "the nations of the northern Pacific are drawing ever closer. All around this great ocean we see good friends Canada and Australia, New Zealand and Thailand, the Philippines and Taiwan. And they will find in America a nation that is determined and patient and committed to the great cause of building a world that is more peaceful, more secure and more prosperous."

The grouping, of course, was deliberate.