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US responds cautiously to China's `goodwill' gesture

The US issued a lukewarm response to Chinese Vice Premier Qian Qichen's (錢其琛) latest statement on cross-strait relations, while China specialists in Washington gave mixed reviews of Thursday's statement.

The US State Department said it is "up to both sides of the Strait to evaluate any proposals for cross-strait dialogue," but avoided commenting on any specific proposal or initiative made by Qian.

Qian said in his statement that China would welcome visits from DPP members in "appropriate capacities" to promote bilateral understanding and that not all DPP members supported Taiwan's independence.

"We welcome any steps that might lead to a reduction in cross-strait tensions," the US State Department said in a statement issued after it had studied a translation of Qian's six-page statement.

"For our part, we urge resumption of dialogue and we, therefore, welcome steps in that direction, including mutually beneficial expansion of economic and cultural exchanges between the PRC and Taiwan," the department said.

While Washington has long urged the resumption of dialogue, most recently during last week's visit by Zhou Mingwei (周明偉), the deputy minister of Beijing's Taiwan Affairs Office, the reference to economic and cultural exchanges appeared to respond to Qian's remarks on the impact of WTO membership on the potential for Taiwan-China talks.

Qian called the two countries' membership in the WTO a "new mechanism" for potential contacts on economic and trade issues, a phrase that some Washington analysts pointed to as significant. However, Qian ruled out political talks under the WTO umbrella.

Washington analysts were unsure how much of Qian's statement reflected a real change in Beijing's cross-strait policy. But most saw the statement as positive overall.

"It is not a breakthrough," former US ambassador to Beijing James Lilley told the Taipei Times. "It is consistent with what they said before and the ebbs and flows and tactics of the [cross-strait] relationship. It happens to be in an upturn, and that is positive."

Lilley called the statement "fine tuning." Regarding Qian's invitation to members of the DPP to visit China, Lilley said: "Nothing has changed. The DPP people have been going there for a long time."

He called Qian's statement a "magnanimous gesture" that could be meant to lure Taiwan into a "trap."

Nevertheless, with US President George W. Bush slated to go to Beijing next month, Lilley called Qian's statement "a good move."

"[Things] seems to be moving ahead a little bit," he added.

Others offered a more positive analysis of the statement.

"It's an important development. It shows some real flexibility on the PRC side," said Robert Sutter, a professor at Georgetown University. "The PRC is really leaning forward on this."

Sutter said the statement was "obviously designed to deal with the DPP, with as many of those people as they can."

Nevertheless, he said "we must wait and see" how the opening plays out over time.

Sutter said he did not expect Qian to go as far as he did, in view of the leadership changes coming at the end of the year at the 16th Communist Party Congress.

"It's understandable looking at the reality in Taiwan, but it's not understandable when you think about the risk for the leadership," he said.

Lilley noted "a bit of Maoist thinking" in Qian's remarks, in which he stressed the "little contradictions" of dealing with DPP members who do not favor Taiwan's independence and "big contradictions" with those who do.

Other observers noted that Qian did not stray from the basic Beijing demand that Taiwan accept the "one China" principle as a precondition for any cross-strait talks, but others noted a lack of the bellicosity of previous Chinese comments on relations with Taiwan.

"It's a far cry from the White Paper," noted Sutter, referring to the threat Beijing issued on the eve of the March 2000 Taiwan presidential election, which warned of war if Taipei delayed the resumption of cross-strait talks indefinitely.
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