Political, economic and military ties will strengthen between Washington and Taipei over the next four to five years, but the US should maintain a degree of ambiguity regarding its stance on cross-strait affairs, according to a report recently published by the Rand Corp.
In the 172-page report titled "Taiwan's Foreign and Defense Policies: Features and Determinants," analysts Michael Swaine and James Mulvernon said that President Chen Shui-bian's (
Yet internal debates will continue to rage over the dangers, costs and opportunities presented by Chen's policy proposals, such as the adoption of offensive strike capabilities and the construction of sophisticated ballistic missile defense systems.
The analysts said, however, "American support for Taiwan's democratic development should not equate with support for independence."
They added that Beijing will not accept a mere avoidance of a formal declaration of independence by Taiwan as sufficient to guarantee "no independence." Taiwan could take other actions, they said, with US support, that Beijing would view as dangerous -- and Taiwan would be more inclined to do so if the US provides a public defense guarantee.
However, Swaine and James Mulvenon said that domestic, as well as international constraints on Taipei and Beijing will likely perpetrate a policy stalemate over cross-strait relations, with both sides appealing to outside constituencies to facilitate a potential deal.
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