Differing views
Andrew Nathan, professor of political science at Columbia University, had a slightly different view.
"I don't think Beijing would be compelled to deal with them because Beijing is interested in dealing with a government in Taiwan that is willing to make some concessions on the issue of sovereignty. I don't think the Chen government would be more willing to do that in the future than it was in the past," Nathan said.
But Nathan said Beijing would perhaps soon express its dissatisfaction with the DPP's victory in the election by either launching verbal attacks or refusing to cooperate with Chen on Taiwan's more open economic policy toward China.
"I think they can launch verbal attacks on Chen Shui-bian, on Lee Teng-hui, on the voters if they want to as they've done before and said the voters are heading for a disaster," Nathan said.
"They can refuse the cooperation with the government's opening policy. Chen Shui-bian would like to open economic policy toward the mainland and get credit for that. The mainland can try to deny that credit by encouraging Taiwanese trade and investment but not facilitating [the] Taiwanese government's policy," Nathan added.
But Nathan also pointed out that Beijing had to consider the likely antagonism on the part of Taiwanese when trying to use strong methods to scare Taiwan in the wake of Saturday's election.
Swaine said that if Beijing perceived it had enormous leverage against Taiwan, particularly because of the growing economic integration between the two sides, and if there was still strong opposition to Chen's government in Taiwan, China would continue using the opposition parties and economic policy to isolate Chen.
As for Taiwan, Wu argued that Chen's interpretation of his party's victory in the election would be instrumental in determining the extent to which Chen can adjust his cross-strait policy.
If Chen attributed the DPP's victory to its growing move toward the center of the political spectrum, thus enticing support from moderate voters at the ballot box, then he might regard it as imperative to make further conciliatory gestures to China, Wu said.
Possible flexibility
"But if the main lesson Chen learns is that the DPP's victory is due its desire to solve Taiwan's sovereignty issue," with the KMT's poor showing seen as a result of the party's unification line and the Taiwan Solidarity Union's success as as a result its pro-independence stance, Chen might reduce his flexibility when dealing with China, Wu said.
Swaine stressed a continuing stalemate across the strait until at least the 16th Party Congress in autumn.
"I think Beijing will not change its precondition for opening talks. I don't think there are enough incentives at this point for any post-election government here to change its position," Swaine said.
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