Scholars see continuation of cross-strait stalemate

A timely breaking of the cross-strait stalemate is unlikely, given complicating factors such as China's upcoming power transfer next autumn and the uncertain political makeup in Taiwan after Saturday's election, analysts said yesterday.

With the DPP set to assume the position as the largest party in the legislature -- giving President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) a stronger position with which to lead a coalition government -- election watchers yesterday brainstormed in a seminar over what they saw as the election's implications on issues such as cross-strait affairs.

Few seminar participants, however, painted a rosy picture on the likelihood of the resumption of cross-strait talks, suspended by Beijing in July 1999. Talks were severed after then-president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) characterized bilateral ties as "state to state."

Beijing has also refused to deal with the DPP-led government that took office in May of last year due to its suspicion of what it saw as the pro-independence nature of the party -- this despite various conciliatory gestures made by Chen since assuming the presidency.

Cross-strait pessimism

"On cross-strait relations I am not optimistic because it's a general rule governing the behavior of politicians -- that is, they tend to lose their flexibility when challenged by domestic power contenders," said Wu Yu-shan (吳玉山), professor of political science at National Taiwan University.

"So with the 16th [Chinese Communist] Party Congress approaching, I wonder why any heavyweights in Beijing would want to give concessions to Taiwan. That would obviously encroach on their position" of power, Wu added.

Michael Swaine, Senior Associate of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, echoed Wu's view.

"I don't see that there is going to be moderation on the [part of the] Beijing government on this point prior to the 16th Party Congress. In China, I don't think they want to take any initiative on this point. They'd rather have it keep under control for now and through the party congress, and leave it for the next government in China to deal with it," Swaine said.

The Chinese leadership changes are scheduled to formally take place at next year's 16th Party Congress, although power maneuvering ahead of the meeting has already taken place -- with older leaders working to hang onto power and younger ones seeking to replace them.

Chinese President Jiang Zemin (江澤民), along with National People's Congress Chairman Li Peng (李鵬) and Premier Zhu Rongji (朱鎔基), are all expected to step down from their state and party posts to make way for fresh blood.

Besides electing top party positions, including a new line-up in the powerful seven-member Politburo Standing Committee, next year's congress will also see a revamping of the 21-member politburo and the 220-member central committee.

Only one day after the election in Taiwan, analysts also said that since the makeup of a DPP-led coalition government remained uncertain, it is premature to predict whether Beijing would drop its non-contact policy toward Chen's administration.

"A lot depends on what happens in the alliance structure within the Taiwan government ... in the next few weeks and months," Swaine said.

"If you get a radical realignment in the coalition government, for example, with a large number of former KMT members defected, or you get this new alliance that includes both KMT and PFP members, then Beijing is looking at a different type of political makeup and [it will] make them feel that it needs to deal with this new situation," Swaine added.