Losing candidates blame their defeat on inaccurate polls

Several high-profile Taipei City legislative candidates are blaming their defeats in Saturday's elections on opinion polls.

The defeated candidates say surveys showing they had a high probability of being elected were "far from reality."

Polls led many supporters into believing that their votes weren't needed, the candidates say.

Among the legislative candidates stunned by their losses are independent Shih Min-te (施明德), the KMT's Ting Shou-chung (丁守中) and the New Party's Lai Shyh-bao (賴士葆).

Despite opinion polls showing he was leading, Shih, a former DPP chairman, failed to win a fourth-term legislative seat for Taipei's northern constituency.

Shih's campaign said polls putting him in front deceived many of his supporters into thinking that votes for the candidate weren't needed.

"Many supporters decided to shift their votes to other candidates, whom they regarded as being in a more urgent situation," they said.

Ting, who was campaigning for a fifth term, was also left dumbfounded by his loss.

"From the time I decided to run for a fifth term, my opinion polls were high, ranking me in the top three among [33] candidates," Ting said.

"Aside from my supporters, even I felt strongly that I would be elected for sure."

Wu Dong-yeh (吳東野), researcher at the Institute of International Relations at National Chengchi University, said insufficient polling samples may have been the reason behind the inaccurate pre-election surveys.

"Unlike the presidential and mayoral elections, where the candidates compete for only one spot, there are more than two seats open in a legislative election."

"Thus a `blind spot' would be more likely to occur and affect the accuracy of polls if these surveys questioned insufficient interviewees to represent correctly the multiplicity of seats," Wu said.