Reporter's Notebook: Post-election situation clarifies

The nature of the post-election government has become clearer over the past two days. President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) will be able to form his "cross-party coalition for national stability," though the exact nature of the coalition remains to be seen.

The ROC Constitution (Article 3 of the Additional Amendments) unambiguously states: "The premier shall be appointed by the president." Most certainly, even should the DPP suffer an unexpected disaster in the election, President Chen will not allow the opposition to take the initiative.

The nature of the coalition will depend, in the first instance, on the internal politics of the KMT. Will party Chairman Lien Chan (連戰) be able to retain his post? If the DPP wins more legislative seats than the KMT, Lien will almost certainly be forced to resign. Even if the KMT maintains parity with the DPP, Lien's position must be seen as tentative since he has led the KMT's massive decline beginning with his disastrous presidential run last year.

Defections

Furthermore, while the DPP will gain seats -- for example, Chiayi County's independent Chang Hua-kuan (張花冠) has promised to join the DPP after she is elected -- the KMT will almost certainly suffer defections, thus further endangering Lien's hold on his position.

Should Lien resign, whether or not the KMT joins with the DPP in a "grand coalition" will depend on the new leadership and the battle between those who emphasize the KMT's "Chinese" identification and those who believe the only future for the KMT is to push its roots firmly into Taiwanese soil. This contest will be between KMT's the younger pro-China leaders, such as Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) and former foreign minister Jason Hu (胡志強), and Taiwanese leaders, such as legislative speaker Wang Jin-pyng (王金平). It's possible this contest will be delayed with a transitional leadership under someone like former premier Vincent Siew (蕭萬長), a Taiwanese technocrat who has worked closely with the mainlander elite.

Such a "grand coalition" would have the numbers to implement substantial constitutional reform. But the DPP -- as a disciplined legislative party -- would want assurances from the new KMT leader that it would be able to carry out its side of the bargain on crucial votes.

Controlling the legislature

If Lien should survive in office or if the new KMT leadership were to prove insufficiently reformist, the likelihood of a DPP-PFP (People First Party) coalition would be large. On current estimates, such a coalition would have sufficient numbers (say 80 DPP, 10 Taiwan Solidarity Union [TSU] and 35 PFP legislators) to control the legislature. Furthermore, the PFP would likely be discipline enough to implement the coalition's program.

There has been little pre-election discussion of a potential DPP-PFP coalition because both parties fear they would lose votes owing to the highly emotional feelings their supporters have about independence and unification, respectively. Yet, both parties want to abolish "black gold" (黑金) politics, despite PFP Chairman James Soong's (宋楚瑜) earlier intimate involvement in KMT "black gold" campaigns, and both parties, neither of which has much money, would love to investigate and "clean up" the KMT's enormous financial assets. Their legislative majority would be sufficient for such an initiative.