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Dec. 1 elections: Vote to shape political landscape

The Dec. 1 elections for the legislature are expected to shape the formation of a coalition government, realign major political parties and offer a foretaste of the 2004 presidential race.

President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) has reiterated his intent to form a coalition government after the December elections, whatever the showing of his DPP.

Frustrated by a lack of majority backing in the legislature, Chen has counted on a coalition government to defuse resistance to his policy initiatives.

The number of seats individual parties capture will be used to gauge their strength and serve as bargaining chips in talks about who may fill which positions, said Swei Duh-ching (隋杜卿), a political scientist at National Chengchi University.

Based on their showing thus far, the post-election political landscape is likely to feature the two big parties, the KMT and the DPP; one medium-sized party, the People First Party (PFP); and two small parties, the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) and the New Party. In addition, there will remain a number of independent seats.

The KMT is struggling maintain its status as the largest party in the legislature, well aware that political battles may well make it impossible for the party to retain majority control.

In 1998 the party won 123 seats with 46 percent of the vote, securing it a solid upper hand in the 225-member legislature.

Minimum 85 seats

"The party aims to hold on to 85 to 90 seats, allowing it a dominant say in the making of the coalition government," KMT press aide Tan Chi-tung (譚啟東) said.

In particular, the KMT is interested in seven Cabinet posts -- the premiership, the vice premiership, the ministries of economics and finance, head of the Council for Economic Planning and Development, the governor of the Central Bank of China, and the Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, according to KMT Vice Chairman Wang Jin-pyng (王金平).

"Without those appointments, we cannot help reverse the economic downturn that has worried the nation," said Wang, also the legislative speaker, during an earlier interview. "The DPP administration has given the impression it is suffering from a dearth of economic talent."

Possible rift

Should the KMT fail to achieve its goal of remaining the largest party in the legislature, the KMT will likely experience another rift, with disgruntled members blaming the leadership for putting the party on the wrong track. KMT Chairman Lien Chan (連戰), like his predecessor Lee Teng-hui (李登輝), will likely be asked to step down and shoulder the blame along with other key officials.

"The party will have to adjust its leadership and policies should it fall behind the DPP by more than five seats," said KMT lawmaker Hung Hsing-rong (洪性榮), who is widely considered a Lee sympathizer.

The DPP, swept into power partly because of a KMT split, has chosen to play it safe. Rather than mount an ambitious campaign to end its minority status, the party has strived to increase its seats from 65 to 85 so it may become the largest party or a close second in the legislature.

"An up-to-standard showing on Dec.1 is vital for the DPP, as it will decide whether the president has to concede substantial ground when seeking to form the coalition government," DPP lawmaker Shen Fu-hsiung (沈富雄) said. Chen has made it clear he will not relinquish his power to appoint the premier and, by extension, the overall Cabinet line-up.

The DPP won 70 seats with 30 percent of the vote in 1998, down 3 percent from the legislative polls in 1995.

Last year, five of those victors joined the Chen administration, further shrinking the party's presence in the legislature.

Polls show the DPP is running neck and neck with the KMT for first place in the elections now two weeks away.

"The forecast, should it come true, will mute the KMT's claim for the right to steer the Cabinet," Shen said.

Tension will continue over ties between the executive and legislative branches if the DPP finishes a distant second, as it will have trouble finding an ally large enough to give it the votes needed to carry out its policy goals.

"The December polls will have a decisive bearing on the coalition government, whose performance in the following years may make or break Chen's re-election bid in 2004," Shen said.

Whatever the election outcome, the People First Party stands to be the biggest winner as it is poised to double its presence in the legislature on Dec. 1, less than two years after its creation.

The elections provide an opportunity for the party to assert its standing on the political stage and test the popularity of its chairman, James Soong (宋楚瑜). Soong missed the presidency by a slim margin last year and appears set to mount a second attempt.

"Given the support the party enjoys nationwide, it should be able to raise its number of legislative seats from 19 to 40 on election day," said PFP legislative leader Chou Hsi-wei (周錫瑋).

Though the party has vowed to act as an opposition group, pundits say they would not be surprised if the PFP decides to ally with either the KMT or the DPP after the elections.

Capitalizing on rivalry

"Politically shrewd, Soong will seek to capitalize on the rivalry between the KMT and the DPP by siding with whichever camp puts up the better offer," said Swei, the political scientist. "That explains why he has shed little light on his stance over key policy issues."

PFP spokesman Liao Chang-sung (廖蒼松) said that if Soong can somehow keep his popularity from eroding, the chances are that he will enter the 2004 presidential race.

The TSU, though born only three months ago, has drawn heavy media attention thanks to former president Lee, who has campaigned hard for its candidates.

Fending off boycott

Founded on a platform similar to that of the DPP, the newly formed party hopes to win 35 seats so it can help the DPP fend off an opposition boycott in the legislature.

A DPP-TSU coalition would promise the most harmony and consistency, but it remains to be seen if the latter can attain its objective. Many observers paint a grim picture as most TSU candidates lack a high profile and switched political affiliations only after losing nominations with their original parties.

"Based on various surveys, the TSU will have no problem passing the 5 percent threshold -- qualifying it for seats reserved for proportional representation," said Emile Sheng (盛治仁), who teaches political science at Soochow University. "But I doubt the party can bag more than 10 seats, as its candidates are generally considered second-rate."

While other parties are fighting to preserve or augment their political clout, the pro-unification New Party is scrambling to survive.

The party, comprised mostly of mainland Chinese, has lost its unique appeal now that the KMT has re-embraced the pro-unification line and revoked the membership of Lee, the unificationists' bete noire.

Some party heavyweights have signaled a desire to rejoin the KMT if the tiny party fails to meet the 5 percent test.

"That is definitely one of the subjects we have talked about of late," said New Party legislative leader Levi Ying (營志宏). "Now the reason we quit the KMT no longer exists."
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