Dec. 1 elections: Vote to shape political landscape

The Dec. 1 elections for the legislature are expected to shape the formation of a coalition government, realign major political parties and offer a foretaste of the 2004 presidential race.

President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) has reiterated his intent to form a coalition government after the December elections, whatever the showing of his DPP.

Frustrated by a lack of majority backing in the legislature, Chen has counted on a coalition government to defuse resistance to his policy initiatives.

The number of seats individual parties capture will be used to gauge their strength and serve as bargaining chips in talks about who may fill which positions, said Swei Duh-ching (隋杜卿), a political scientist at National Chengchi University.

Based on their showing thus far, the post-election political landscape is likely to feature the two big parties, the KMT and the DPP; one medium-sized party, the People First Party (PFP); and two small parties, the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) and the New Party. In addition, there will remain a number of independent seats.

The KMT is struggling maintain its status as the largest party in the legislature, well aware that political battles may well make it impossible for the party to retain majority control.

In 1998 the party won 123 seats with 46 percent of the vote, securing it a solid upper hand in the 225-member legislature.

Minimum 85 seats

"The party aims to hold on to 85 to 90 seats, allowing it a dominant say in the making of the coalition government," KMT press aide Tan Chi-tung (譚啟東) said.

In particular, the KMT is interested in seven Cabinet posts -- the premiership, the vice premiership, the ministries of economics and finance, head of the Council for Economic Planning and Development, the governor of the Central Bank of China, and the Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, according to KMT Vice Chairman Wang Jin-pyng (王金平).

"Without those appointments, we cannot help reverse the economic downturn that has worried the nation," said Wang, also the legislative speaker, during an earlier interview. "The DPP administration has given the impression it is suffering from a dearth of economic talent."

Possible rift

Should the KMT fail to achieve its goal of remaining the largest party in the legislature, the KMT will likely experience another rift, with disgruntled members blaming the leadership for putting the party on the wrong track. KMT Chairman Lien Chan (連戰), like his predecessor Lee Teng-hui (李登輝), will likely be asked to step down and shoulder the blame along with other key officials.

"The party will have to adjust its leadership and policies should it fall behind the DPP by more than five seats," said KMT lawmaker Hung Hsing-rong (洪性榮), who is widely considered a Lee sympathizer.

The DPP, swept into power partly because of a KMT split, has chosen to play it safe. Rather than mount an ambitious campaign to end its minority status, the party has strived to increase its seats from 65 to 85 so it may become the largest party or a close second in the legislature.

"An up-to-standard showing on Dec.1 is vital for the DPP, as it will decide whether the president has to concede substantial ground when seeking to form the coalition government," DPP lawmaker Shen Fu-hsiung (沈富雄) said. Chen has made it clear he will not relinquish his power to appoint the premier and, by extension, the overall Cabinet line-up.