Chance for cross-strait progress grows

President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁), though unable to attend the upcoming APEC summit in Shanghai, may yet set foot on Chinese soil later in his term in a bid to break the gridlock across the Taiwan Strait.

An increasing number of Chinese officials and scholars are finding it increasingly unpalatable to isolate the Chen administration, which remains rather stable despite the parlous state of the economy.

Though likely to govern without a majority in the legislature after the December polls, the first non-KMT president appears poised to win a second term in 2004, thanks to a divided opposition.

"A visit by Chen to China, though still a long-shot, is not totally impossible," said a ranking official at Mainland Affairs Council, who requested not to be named. "Some in Beijing have concluded it is time to reciprocate his goodwill" to end the stagnant state of cross-strait ties.

During the presidential race last year, Chen vowed to emulate late US president Richard Nixon, who despite his vocal criticism of China initiated the campaign to normalize relations with Beijing in the early 1970s.

Concessions

To that end, Chen has made a series of concessions, including promises not to declare Taiwanese independence or tinker with the nation's flag or national anthem. On New Year's Eve, he floated the idea of cultural and economic integration as an incremental approach to bridging differences between the two sides.

Earlier this year, he reiterated his wish to personally take part in the APEC meeting in Shanghai and talk with his Chinese counterpart Jiang Zeming (江澤民) on any subject -- economic or political.

This and other overtures, however, have failed to move Beijing, which insists Chen accept the "one China" principle before seeking to mend fences. Chen and the DPP are unwilling to concede this point, saying that the 23 million people of Taiwan have the final say on Taiwan's fate.

"Recently, they have agreed Chen is the best man to discuss cross-strait disputes with," the council official said. "Given his stance on the sovereignty issue, people here will not tie his hands with charges he may sell out Taiwan."

Chen himself has stressed that as a lawyer by training, he is both pragmatic and flexible when sitting at the negotiating table.

But Beijing has refused to give serious thought to the suggestion, suspicious of the pro-independence clause enshrined in the DPP charter. Furthermore, it has adopted a united-front policy, using political and economic means to undermine Chen by cultivating his opponents and Taiwanese businessmen.

Zhang Jialin (章嘉琳), a senior fellow at the Shanghai Institute for International Studies, confirmed that some have argued against continued shunning of the DPP government, which has managed to stay popular, especially in southern Taiwan.

Indeed, many in Taiwan lay the blame for the economic slowdown on the opposition parties, which control a two-thirds majority in the legislature and which have repeatedly quashed Chen's policy initiatives.

Zhang, a former aide of Wang Daohan (汪道涵), China's top negotiator with Taiwan, attributed the turnabout of Chinese idea brokers in part to a realization that Chen is here to stay as president, whether they like it or not.

"Chances are high that Chen will be re-elected in 2004, as opposition parties show no sign of patching up their quarrel and mounting a joint bid," Zhang said during a telephone interview.