MAC says China attack unlikely

Both the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Mainland Affairs Council believe that the chances of China attacking Taiwan is low at this moment, the two departments' heads told lawmakers separately yesterday.

Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), chairwoman of the Mainland Affairs Council, said that her department consulted with other government departments and evaluated the situation objectively. They concluded that China wouldn't take advantage of the global crisis situation. She, however, warned that preparedness against possible Chinese attacks are still necessary.

Tsai said that Taiwan has delivered various messages to Beijing, expressing its desire to keep the peace across the strait. But still, Taiwan should never discount the possibility that China might misjudge the situation.

In response to lawmakers' concerns over possible Chinese attacks, Tsai emphasized that China has its own domestic problems regarding Muslims and its own concerns for its interests in central Asia -- especially the problems caused by Muslim Uighurs seeking independence in Xinjiang.

Taiwan has been concerned about possible Chinese attacks since Sept. 11 and discussions about the issue has been held repeatedly -- even though US Secretary of State Colin Powell clarified last week that the US would not change its stance toward Taiwan.

"I think that those nations that depend on us somewhat for their sense of security should have no fear that somehow their sense of security has been weakened or will be weakened -- like Taiwan," Powell said.

According to the MAC, China has tried to improve its relations with the US by giving its support to the anti-terrorism campaign which has been launched by the US.

"China expressed its desire to cooperate with the US and put a lid on anti-US opinions which peaked across China right after the incident happened. This reflects China's desire to improve its bilateral relation with the US," the MAC said in its analysis.

In the analysis, the MAC also pointed out that China is communicating with Afghanistan's ruling Taliban while it is supporting the anti-terrorism campaign -- which might upset other western countries.

The lawmakers asked Tsai whether the US would abandon Taiwan's interests to seek China's cooperation in the anti-terrorism campaign.

She answered that the communication channel between Taiwan and the US is, and always has been, smooth.

Meanwhile, Minister of Foreign Affairs Tien Hung-mao (田弘茂) told lawmakers yesterday morning that it was unlikely that Beijing would create any conflict across the Taiwan Strait at present.

The scholar-turned-foreign minister said the above evaluation is based on his personal belief that China has other priorities in mind.

These include China's ambition to host a successful APEC summit in Shanghai later this month, the communist regime's preoccupation with a possible domestic economic downturn -- which is likely to be triggered by worldwide economic recession as a result of the US terrorist attacks and the latest US attacks in Afghanistan.

"Besides, China is worried about the power transfer in their own politics. This requires a solution within one year -- and Beijing has attempted to maintain good ties with the US," Tien added.