The US would likely suffer losses greater than its opponent in Afghanistan should its war on terrorism lead to the deployment of ground troops, an instructor with the National Defense University said yesterday.
"Afghanistan is a poor country. It has nothing to lose," said Colonel Lu Hsu (陸續), the education affairs chief of the university's Chung Cheng Institute of Technology.
"If the US launches war against Afghanistan, it's very likely to suffer more losses [in personnel or equipment] than the Muslim country," Hsu said.
The military instructor noted that to date the US has yet to lay out the evidence against Osama bin Laden.
The US earlier this week said it would soon release evidence linking bin Laden and his network to the attacks on New York and Washington, but then later downplayed that suggestion.
"Under the circumstances, the US may not be able to get full support from the international community for its planned military action against Afghanistan," Lu said.
The military analyst made the remarks yesterday after delivering a speech on the "revolution in military affairs."
Lu's comments were in response to reporters' questions that had little to do with the subject he was scheduled to talk about: New technology and its impact on the military.
It was the first time that a Taiwanese defense official has openly commented on the possibility of a war in Afghanistan since the terrorist attacks against the US two weeks ago.
Lu said he didn't think the US would launch military strikes in Afghanistan anytime soon.
"The US has yet to collect sufficient information on Afghanistan and bin Laden. The only way to get such information is through people inside the Afghanistan government and the bin Laden camp," Lu said. "But the US doesn't seem to have sufficient relevant information at the moment."
Still, while the military analyst believes the US would suffer greater losses in a ground war, it's not even clear whether American strategists are contemplating such an action.
Although the US has been building up forces in the Persian Gulf region, analysts note that the so-called war against terrorists isn't likely to be a conventional war.
They note that the US has taken steps to freeze terrorists' assets, pressure their state supporters through diplomacy and put in motion covert operations against their networks.
US analysts say that any action the US takes will probably rely less on conventional weaponry and more on special operations raids, covert attacks and nonmilitary measures in the realms of finance, diplomacy and computer warfare.
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