Lee's election impact still unclear

"Though Lee still wields considerable influence over the nation's politics, his popularity appears to be diminished in central and northern Taiwan."

Chang Ling-chen, a political science analyst at National Taiwan University

Former president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) showed that he could still attract thousands of people at a Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) rally last weekend, but it's still too early to say how influential he will be in the December elections, analysts said yesterday.

Lee, disappointed with the KMT, of which he has been a member for decades and was chairman for 12 years, has thrown his weight behind the newly formed TSU which aims to help the ruling DPP pursue its policy goals, if it gains sufficient seats in the legislature.

"It's too early to predict Lee's impact on the legislative elections which are more than two months away," said DPP lawmaker Chen Chung-hsin (陳忠信). "The rally in Kaohsiung last week may prove an isolated incident."

Lee has claimed more than 100,000 supporters attended the event and has blamed the media for failing to mention the vast crowd in an obvious attempt to play down his stature.

"I doubt that so many people actually took part in the rally, as the venue could not house such a large crowd," Chen said.

Lee, who polled over 5 million votes in the first direct presidential election in 1996, has asked his supporters to back TSU legislative candidates to keep his "Taiwan first" legacy alive.

Without denying Lee's charisma, Chen said it was difficult to transfer one's electoral backing to another in legislative races where bonds between candidates and their constituents outweigh any other factor.

He branded TSU runners as "second-tiered," since many are former KMT and DPP members who have joined the new political group after failing to win nominations from the two major parties.

Still, Chen predicted that -- with Lee's help -- the TSU should be able to capture 10 legislative seats with at least 5 percent of the total votes, qualifying it to claim seats reserved for proportional representation and government campaign funding.

The DPP, while grateful for the planned help, has kept the TSU at arm's length, for fear a lack of "brand definition" may affect its own showing.

Chang Ling-chen (張麟徵), a political science analyst at National Taiwan University, agreed in part.

"Though Lee still wields considerable influence over the nation's politics, his popularity appears to be diminished in central and northern Taiwan," Chang said. "Also, he enjoys less appeal among younger voters."

She speculated that this was why the TSU, aware of the fact, chose to launch its first campaign rally in the south.

The scholar said that if Lee means to help the DPP, he should stump directly for its candidates rather than help the TSU, as the two share a similar platform and are fighting for a similar electoral group.

Hou Han-chun (侯漢君), a lecturer on public administration at National Taipei University, said he thought that TSU candidates would be more radical in the run-up to the poll to make up for their lack of name recognition.