Scientists wary of climate change

Scientists yesterday called upon the government to take effective measures to prevent mudslide disasters triggered by torrential rains. The call comes as more extreme weather conditions are expected in the future due to long-term, global climate change.

The remarks were made at a panel discussion on mudslide disaster prevention strategies in the light of global climate change, held yesterday by the National Policy Foundation (NPF), a KMT think tank.

Scientists attending the meeting said that the devastation caused by Typhoon Toraji could be attributed to fragile land rather than the weather because the total rainfall brought by the typhoon was not particularly high.

Typhoon Toraji reportedly brought approximately 630mm of rainfall to mountainous areas. Scientists said, however, that the rapid rate of the rainfall -- about 160mm per hour -- was one of the reasons for the great scale of human and financial loss.

Atmospheric science specialists said that Taiwan needs to be well-prepared for future mudslides because the global weather outlook indicates future weather might frequently present the conditions that trigger mudslides.

"A worse situation lies ahead," said Wu Ming-chin (吳明進), an atmospheric sciences professor at National Taiwan University.

According to the predictions of climate researchers, Wu said, Taiwan will suffer more in the future from torrential rain because of global climate change.

Wu said that in the past 50 years total annual rainfall has increased in eastern and northern Taiwan, while it has decreased in western and southern Taiwan.

"But we have to be very cautious about the phenomenon of increasing rainfall intensity [the amount of rain to fall within a given period of time] throughout the island," Wu said.

Wu said that more heavy rain will lead to more floods, leaving many mudslide-prone areas all the more vulnerable.

Lin Hsiang-nung (林享能), an NPF Fellow, said that the government should not have neglected the predictions of international experts about torrential rain in local areas.

"In this climate situation, relocating residents living in mudslide-prone areas is absolutely necessary," said Lin, who is also a former chairman of the Council of Agriculture.

In addition, Lin said, the government should have made a database of mudslide-prone areas and collapsed mountainous areas as a basic reference for local governments.

Tsai Kuang-jung (蔡光榮), a civil engineering professor at National Pingtung University of Science and Technology, said that experts from several universities had last year completed a primary survey of mudslide-prone areas and collapsed mountainous areas.

"The investigation report, however, has been brushed aside by the Council of Agriculture since last year," Tsai said. He said that this amounted to denying people living in such areas their "right to know."

Tsai said that the government had never considered the threats posed by mudslides since the devastating 921 earthquake.

Tsai said that ever since the quake, mudslides have been much more easily triggered by rain in central Taiwan than they were previously.

Scientists said that the government should establish a department to coordinate the work of existing forestry and agricultural agencies, in order to take charge of land planning and management affairs.

"The government should devise solutions by considering the range of problems all together, including the collapse of land in mountainous areas, mudslides and river flows," said Chang Shih-Chiao (張石角), a geology professor at National Taiwan University.