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NSC says Beijing may yet talk to DPP

The National Security Council (NSC) recently predicted that China will seriously consider reopening dialogue with Taiwan if the ruling DPP can successfully create a majority alliance in the Legislative Yuan after the year-end legislative elections.

Refuting opposition claims that President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) has done nothing to improve cross-strait relations since the DPP took power last May, the NSC stressed that Chen's administration has successfully stopped the deterioration of the cross-strait situation.

"The present positive Taiwan-US relations have enabled President Chen to extend his goodwill gestures to China to ease tensions across the Taiwan Strait," said Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍), a senior advisor to the NSC, during an international forum in Japan late last month.

"Seeing their political space squeezed by the DPP's move to middle ground, opposition parties choose to advocate much closer relations with China in order to distinguish themselves from the ruling party in the cross-strait issues," Lin added.

Lin made the remarks in a paper titled The Impact of the US' Asia policy on Taiwan, in which he also analyzed how changes in the US government's Asia policy will influence Taiwan's domestic issues.

Lin said that the new political landscape has been created by the DPP's minor shift from the left to the center, and a radical move to the right by the opposition parties.

"Some politicians are beginning to appeal to a small block of voters categorized as `A-Bian haters' to secure a sure voter base," Lin said.

He stressed that because the politicians' platforms do not reflect the distribution of voter opinions in the political spectrum "a political re-alignment may take place following the legislative elections at the end of this year.

"It is generally acknowledged that the new political realignment might be the following: The DPP becomes the biggest party and allies with a new political party centering around former president Lee Teng-Hui (李登輝); the KMT is further weakened due to election failure and internal splits; the PFP becomes stronger," Lin said.

"If this scenario comes true, it will put tremendous pressure on China to open dialogue with Taiwan," Lin said.

Another NSC advisor also provided an assessment of the internal political situation in China, which echo Lin's point of view.

Political power is much more stable under Chinese President Jiang Zemin's (江澤民) rule than it appears to the outside world, according to the advisor.

"Though it appears to the international community that Jiang has had a difficult time resisting the hawks in the country, especially from China's army," said the advisor, who refused to be named, "in some cases Jiang actually seems to be the `peacemaker' between hard-liners within China and other countries."

The NSC advisor cited some examples as illustrations of Jiang's firm grip on power and full command over his internal political opponents.

"Over the past years, Jiang smoothly changed PLA military personnel; China's stance softened on the resolution of the EP-3 incident; [it also practiced] relative restraint toward the uproar over secret envoys between Taiwan's former president Lee Teng-hui and Jiang," the advisor said.

The advisor said that Jiang may have been using Chinese nationalism and hardline elements within the PLA either as tools or excuses in his conduct of China's external relations.

Such a re-evaluation of Jiang's influence and power has led the NSC to suggest that Beijing authorities can effectively adjust their strategy toward Taiwan according to any new situation.

"Once Taiwan's political situation stabilizes, the resumption of cross-strait dialogue following the year-end election is not impossible," the advisor said.
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