The National Security Council (NSC) recently predicted that China will seriously consider reopening dialogue with Taiwan if the ruling DPP can successfully create a majority alliance in the Legislative Yuan after the year-end legislative elections.
Refuting opposition claims that President Chen Shui-bian (
"The present positive Taiwan-US relations have enabled President Chen to extend his goodwill gestures to China to ease tensions across the Taiwan Strait," said Lin Chia-lung (
"Seeing their political space squeezed by the DPP's move to middle ground, opposition parties choose to advocate much closer relations with China in order to distinguish themselves from the ruling party in the cross-strait issues," Lin added.
Lin made the remarks in a paper titled The Impact of the US' Asia policy on Taiwan, in which he also analyzed how changes in the US government's Asia policy will influence Taiwan's domestic issues.
Lin said that the new political landscape has been created by the DPP's minor shift from the left to the center, and a radical move to the right by the opposition parties.
"Some politicians are beginning to appeal to a small block of voters categorized as `A-Bian haters' to secure a sure voter base," Lin said.
He stressed that because the politicians' platforms do not reflect the distribution of voter opinions in the political spectrum "a political re-alignment may take place following the legislative elections at the end of this year.
"It is generally acknowledged that the new political realignment might be the following: The DPP becomes the biggest party and allies with a new political party centering around former president Lee Teng-Hui (
"If this scenario comes true, it will put tremendous pressure on China to open dialogue with Taiwan," Lin said.
Another NSC advisor also provided an assessment of the internal political situation in China, which echo Lin's point of view.
Political power is much more stable under Chinese President Jiang Zemin's (
"Though it appears to the international community that Jiang has had a difficult time resisting the hawks in the country, especially from China's army," said the advisor, who refused to be named, "in some cases Jiang actually seems to be the `peacemaker' between hard-liners within China and other countries."
The NSC advisor cited some examples as illustrations of Jiang's firm grip on power and full command over his internal political opponents.
"Over the past years, Jiang smoothly changed PLA military personnel; China's stance softened on the resolution of the EP-3 incident; [it also practiced] relative restraint toward the uproar over secret envoys between Taiwan's former president Lee Teng-hui and Jiang," the advisor said.
The advisor said that Jiang may have been using Chinese nationalism and hardline elements within the PLA either as tools or excuses in his conduct of China's external relations.
Such a re-evaluation of Jiang's influence and power has led the NSC to suggest that Beijing authorities can effectively adjust their strategy toward Taiwan according to any new situation.
"Once Taiwan's political situation stabilizes, the resumption of cross-strait dialogue following the year-end election is not impossible," the advisor said.
ROLLER-COASTER RIDE: More than five earthquakes ranging from magnitude 4.4 to 5.5 on the Richter scale shook eastern Taiwan in rapid succession yesterday afternoon Back-to-back weather fronts are forecast to hit Taiwan this week, resulting in rain across the nation in the coming days, the Central Weather Administration said yesterday, as it also warned residents in mountainous regions to be wary of landslides and rockfalls. As the first front approached, sporadic rainfall began in central and northern parts of Taiwan yesterday, the agency said, adding that rain is forecast to intensify in those regions today, while brief showers would also affect other parts of the nation. A second weather system is forecast to arrive on Thursday, bringing additional rain to the whole nation until Sunday, it
CONDITIONAL: The PRC imposes secret requirements that the funding it provides cannot be spent in states with diplomatic relations with Taiwan, Emma Reilly said China has been bribing UN officials to obtain “special benefits” and to block funding from countries that have diplomatic ties with Taiwan, a former UN employee told the British House of Commons on Tuesday. At a House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee hearing into “international relations within the multilateral system,” former Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) employee Emma Reilly said in a written statement that “Beijing paid bribes to the two successive Presidents of the [UN] General Assembly” during the two-year negotiation of the Sustainable Development Goals. Another way China exercises influence within the UN Secretariat is
CHINA REACTS: The patrol and reconnaissance plane ‘transited the Taiwan Strait in international airspace,’ the 7th Fleet said, while Taipei said it saw nothing unusual The US 7th Fleet yesterday said that a US Navy P-8A Poseidon flew through the Taiwan Strait, a day after US and Chinese defense heads held their first talks since November 2022 in an effort to reduce regional tensions. The patrol and reconnaissance plane “transited the Taiwan Strait in international airspace,” the 7th Fleet said in a news release. “By operating within the Taiwan Strait in accordance with international law, the United States upholds the navigational rights and freedoms of all nations.” In a separate statement, the Ministry of National Defense said that it monitored nearby waters and airspace as the aircraft
Taiwan’s first drag queen to compete on the internationally acclaimed RuPaul’s Drag Race, Nymphia Wind (妮妃雅), was on Friday crowned the “Next Drag Superstar.” Dressed in a sparkling banana dress, Nymphia Wind swept onto the stage for the final, and stole the show. “Taiwan this is for you,” she said right after show host RuPaul announced her as the winner. “To those who feel like they don’t belong, just remember to live fearlessly and to live their truth,” she said on stage. One of the frontrunners for the past 15 episodes, the 28-year-old breezed through to the final after weeks of showcasing her unique