The International Olympic Comm-ittee will vote today to decide the host city for the 2008 Summer Games. While Chinese leaders have argued politics should be kept out of the IOC deliberations, Beijing would only have itself to blame if it failed to win the bid, analysts here and in the US said yesterday.
"If Beijing doesn't get the games, I dare say they will try to blame the US," said Jonathan Clarke, a research fellow with the Cato Institute based in Washington. And even if they do, "the [US] administration has been cautious, so the mud won't stick."
US Congressman Tom Lantos has spearheaded a campaign urging the IOC to vote down Beijing, although US President George W. Bush has remained neutral on the issue.
"Four months ago, I introduced a bipartisan resolution which expresses strong opposition to Beijing's Olympic bid due to China's horrendous human rights record," Lantos said in a statement, predicting the margin of victory for the winning city would be extremely close.
In defending its candidacy, China has said the IOC delegates should only weigh issues such as the country's location, site development, athlete transportation, news media access and diversity.
Lantos faulted his Republican colleagues for failing to schedule a vote on his resolution, saying, "perhaps they are afraid of taking on Beijing and the American corporate interests which have a financial interest in cozy US-China relations."
A successful bid is expected to have a moderating influence on Beijing's policymaking, experts said.
"For at least seven years, China would have to be a `good boy.' After all, the Games can be taken away if Beijing misbehaves," said Clarke, a diplomat-turned scholar.
Edward Chen (
Chen said Beijing appears to be the most promising finalist and dismissed the idea that it would hold Taiwan responsible in the case of failure.
"If denied the privilege, China should reflect upon its human rights record, as government officials here have all spoken in favor of its bid," Chen said.
"If Beijing focuses on the games, it would not have much spare energy to focus on Taiwan," said Clarke. "Therefore, I think that the outcome will be good for Taiwan which, I presume, is why Taipei is supporting Beijing."
Lee Yung-tse (李永熾), a history professor at National Taiwan University, said that Beijing is likely to win but doubted that the victory would make it less of a bully.
"The go-ahead to host such a glamorous world event may fuel nationalism in the land of 1.2 billion, making it a greater threat to regional peace," Lee said.
Mainland Affairs Council chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen (
"Winning the Olympics will intensify nationalist sentiment among its people while allowing the country to advance its economic progress," Tsai said.
But world businesses cannot afford to ignore the most populous nation. Already, General Motors has signed a four-year contract with the Chinese Olympic Committee, according to news reports.
Still, China should earn the games not because of its size or economic strength, but by virtue of its commitment to human rights and the Olympic ideals, insisted Lantos, the US congressman.
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