Taipei Times: You write a lot about China and have a good reputation here in Taiwan. What is your writing angle? Is it to remind people of the "China threat"?
Bill Gertz: The title of my book, The China Threat, looks into what Beijing calls the "China threat theory." One of the highest priorities of Chinese intelligence and diplomatic personnel -- not just in the US but around the world -- is to monitor what they call the China threat theory. According to their military writings, they understand there will be a certain period when people will recognize China as a threat. They actually calculate the time -- from 2020 to 2030. They call this the dangerous decade.
TT: In your book, you talk about the blue team [pro-Taiwan people] and the red team [pro-China people] in the US government. Which group of people do you think views China in a way closest to the real condition?
Gertz: First of all, I am not the blue team nor the red team. I am a league of my own. I think the problem is no debate. The debate has been dominated by the red team -- people who are pro-China and who want to play down danger from China. This is a real problem. It is not so much a question of right or wrong. [But] these people have a predominant view in the government and within the academic community. And they don't want to listen to any other debate. If they disagree with you, they attack you as right-wingers. I have been labeled with some of the [same] accusations. But clearly there needs to be a re-evaluation of the situation. The US policy toward China in the 1970s when we had the "open-up" policy under the Nixon government was not done because they liked the communist government in Beijing. It was done because of the problem with the Soviet Union. Now the problem has been that after the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, there has been no re-evaluation. And the people who formulated that policy want to continue that policy. They do not want to evaluate. My argument is that we need now to re-evaluate the US policy toward China.
TT: What is the stance of the Bush government on the Taiwan issue?
Gertz: Right now, they are debating the issue of how to deal with China. But I would tell you that the most important statement the president has made was the Good Morning, America statement -- that the US will do "whatever it takes" to defend Taiwan. This is as valuable as AEGIS missile ships. I was told by reliable US defense sources that China's interpretation of President Bush's remarks was that not only would the US use conventional forces against China, but nuclear forces as well ... I think it is really important that the president clarifies that [the US position on the Taiwan issue]. I believe it was done with the idea of trying to remove any room for miscalculation.
TT: What do you think of China's ongoing exercises on Dongshan Island?
Gertz: From my discussions with US officials, there have been different opinions within the US intelligence community about these exercises. One element tries to say that these exercises are no big deal and that they are not threatening. Other people recognize it as part of China's efforts to intimidate Taiwan -- especially the amphibious assault-style exercises. They have been closely monitored by the US intelligence community. Another opportunity for some similar exercises could be coming later this year when legislative elections are set to happen here.
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