TT: What do you think is the biggest obstacle to cross-strait rapprochement?
Clarke: The political transition in the PRC is clearly a major impediment to rapprochement but perhaps another obstacle is that everyone talks about the problem all the time. Right now is not a good time for talking about fundamental principles. That is why pragmatic steps in the economic arena or the areas of culture or sports are a better bet. I think the PRC is hoping that, through economic pressure being exerted by Taiwan and multinational firms locating to China, Taiwan will soften its position. But ties are also not at a dangerous phase. The PRC's military exercises have a routine feel about them and Taiwan's response is mature. The PRC did not protest too much about the US arms package to Taiwan. So, although it is frustrating that progress is so slow, patience is in order.
For those who are impatient, they need to find something else to do. This is the essence of my common market suggestion. It would channel energies away from temporarily intractable issues toward something more positive.
TT: Given Beijing's inflexibility over the "one China" precondition and Taiwan's refusal to yield, do you expect China and Taiwan to resume dialogue any time soon?
Clarke: Right now the cross-strait talks are stalemated. The party congress in the PRC and the legislative elections in Taiwan are not the best platforms for creativity. But things do change and both sides should be on the alert for creative ways of rising above the word games. But there is no value in trying too hard to unlock a stalemate when the environment is unpropitious. At such times, it is better to find something else to do.
TT: Do you see any development in the foreseeable future to upset the status quo across the Strait? What are the prospects of the two sides signing a non-aggression pact?
Clarke: I think the status quo is reasonably stable and can last for some time. There are political developments on both sides of the Strait, which constrain the potential for substantive change -- although there may be plenty of dangerous rhetoric. The time calls for cool, sophisticated and patient thinking. A non-aggression pact may be a little ambitious for reasons I have outlined before. The scope for formal political progress is limited, but the idea is a sound one.
TT: In an article published in the `Los Angeles Times,' you said "visitors to Taipei enter a world of medieval complexity." Would you elaborate on that?
Clarke: My point is that there are so many phrases: "one China;" "one China, different interpretations;" "one China, one Taiwan;" "integration" and so on. Each has tremendous significance for one side or the other but much less meaning for those who are outside the closed community of the cross-strait negotiations. The phrases do little to enlighten and a lot to confuse.
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