"Lee Teng-hui's sense of the direction of history is very clear. His grand strategy is to lead Taiwan step by step away from the structure of one China and, in pursuit of this aim, he gradually accumulated power through delicate political power struggles, and phased in this strategy," Lee Yung-chih said.
With this view in mind, the historian pointed out, Lee Teng-hui needed the mainlander heavyweights to stand by him in the beginning, especially those who commanded real power in the old regime. Soong was willing to support Lee at that critical moment, and it was only natural that they should fight side by side and share political resources. "But China policy and the direction of Taiwan's development that Soong envisioned were different from those of Lee and, as Lee began to put his policy of `Taiwanization' into effect, the two were bound to break up," he said. "By contrast, Lien Chan had shown his loyal support for Lee, following and echoing his ideas, and hence Lee preferred Lien to Soong as his successor and believed that Lien would continue his grand strategy," Lee Yung-chih said.
But following the KMT's defeat in the 2000 presidential election, Lien chose to ally with Soong, deviating from Lee's expectations and leaning towards China on cross-strait relations, and Taiwan's future direction. On top of that, with the encouragement of much of Taiwan's media, there is a trend for Taiwan to return to the "one China" structure.
Lee Yung-chih believes this is the key reason for Lee's comeback and alliance with Chen. He believes that Lee does not necessarily trust Chen, but is forming his new political group and allying with Chen for the sake of "Taiwan sovereignty," which he has pursued for the past 12 years. He has begun at the level of political struggle, by attacking Lien Chan in order to counter the opposition alliance's influence.
Chen Jun-lin (陳俊麟), Director of the DPP Survey Center, pointed out, that how much real influence Lee's political group will have and what concrete effect it will have on the year-end elections remains to be assessed when the group publishes its list of members in July. But Lee's ability to set the political agenda has already changed the tone of campaign debates. "If there were no Lee Teng-hui, the opposition alliance's election campaign would pinpoint the weaknesses of the ruling DPP, such as the `economic downturn' and `poor administration.'"
But now that Lee has stepped in, the campaigning focus has shifted toward `Taiwanization' and `democratization,' which are related to national development," Chen said. "But, after all, Chen is the current president, and if it appears to the outside world that it is Lee Teng-hui who is dominating political development, the Bian-Lee alliance will be even more difficult to maintain than the Lee-Lien and Lee-Soong alliances. So the DPP must act with caution," Chen said.
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