In light of the strong support recently expressed by former president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) for current President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁), even announcing that he would help Chen stabilize the political situation, analysts say that a "Bian-Lee" (扁李) versus "Lien-Soong" (
Political observers also say that whether or not a Bian-Lee alliance can defeat the opposition alliance -- presently in a stronger position -- will only be known after the year-end legislative elections. But it is obviously Lee's powerful influence on Taiwanese politics that is leading toward such a confrontation.
Into the fray
"Lee has shifted from being an off-stage director to an on-stage protagonist. Next, we'll see how well Lee helps to attract votes in the year-end elections, and whether pro-Lee legislators will form another political party to cooperate with the DPP," said Chin Heng-wei (
Chin and some scholars dined with Lee last week. It was on a number of occasions like this -- including during several meetings and in an interview with a pro independence magazine -- that Lee explicitly stated his inclination to support Chen. Finally, the denials of a Bian-Lee alliance have given way to admission.
Lee said in the magazine interview that if the DPP wins 85 seats, up to 35 independent or opposition lawmakers will naturally cross over to its side. The DPP will therefore be able to form a stable majority alliance in the legislature, enabling Chen's government to operate much more effectively.
Two days after returning from Latin America on June 5, Chen had a private meeting with Lee. According to a close aide to Lee, the former president told Chen that "Taiwan's Constitution should lean toward the `presidential system,' and thus Chen has no need to renounce his power [to nominate Cabinet members] to form a Cabinet," which the opposition alliance has advocated.
During a meeting with DPP legislators on June 14, Chen also clearly said, "The former president has expressed his support for A-bian [when we met], and shown his willingness to assist the DPP in becoming a stable, majority ruling alliance in the legislature after the elections."
At a meeting with academics last week, Lee went and praised Chen's performance and style saying that he was "getting better and better and tougher and tougher." Meanwhile, Lee criticized the KMT and lashed out at its chairman, Lien Chan (連戰), his own hand-picked successor, and People First Party (PFP) Chairman, James Soong (宋楚瑜), saying that the two had deliberately sought to thwart Chen's rule because they could not accept their failure in the presidential election last year.
Pushing his views
"Lee has stressed several times that he hopes his 12-year effort to promote `localization' [or his so-called Taiwan-first policy,] can be continued. Currently only Chen can carry out this task, while Lien has turned his back on Lee by choosing to team up with Soong," Chin said.
Lee's actions show that he has decided to turn from a behind-the-scenes manipulator into a general leading an army. His immense influence has instantly shaken the domestic political arena.
"In March and April, Lee hid off-stage but directed his criticism at the opposition alliance by means of two publications, while Lien and Soong kept a low profile or made no response. But now Lee has publicly declared his position. Lien and Soong retort that localization means practicing `black gold' politics, reflecting that the two have felt the pressure," said DPP lawmaker Hong Chi-chang (洪奇昌).
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