Barbed wire, concrete blocks, abandoned trucks, landmines and tanks formed the last line of defense against a mock Chinese invasion on Taiwan's beaches last week when the nation launched its annual Hankuang war games.
But if the People's Liberation Army (PLA) ever got that far, any war would be pretty much over.
With US President George W. Bush due to respond to the Taiwan's annual military shopping list today, defense analysts say the nation's capacity to respond to Chinese missiles or a blockade is key to the strategic balance in the Strait.
"Submarines can be both defensive and offensive. It's a very effective deterrent," said Tsai Ming-yen (蔡明彥), associate research fellow of strategic and international studies at the Taiwan Research Institute, a private think tank.
"If the Bush administration agrees to sell us submarines, it will help keep the military balance in the Taiwan Strait," said Tsai, who specializes in China's military modernization.
The armed forces are holding mock exercises to remind the nation itself -- and the world -- of the kind of threat Taiwan's 23 million people face from its giant neighbor and long-time enemy China.
"The focus should not be on anti-landing," said Tsai. "By the time they attempt to land, it'll be too late."
China has warned Washington that selling Taiwan advanced weapons could have a "devastating impact" on relations.
In addition to four Arleigh Burke-class destroyers equipped with the missile-hunting AEGIS radar system and an advanced Patriot anti-missile defense system known as PAC-3, Taiwan is this year looking to buy diesel electric submarines.
With analysts predicting that AEGIS will fall by the wayside, attention has shifted to other elements of the shopping list.
Armed with billions of dollars of US and French fighters and frigates, Taiwan still enjoys air and sea superiority over China, but many believe that this delicate military balance will start tilting in China's favor by 2005.
With its defense spending growing at a double-digit rate every year, China has bought advanced fighters and warships from Russia and steadily increased the number of missiles targeted at Taiwan.
"The two biggest threats to Taiwan are missiles and a naval blockade," said Chen Chung-hsin (
When Beijing menaced Taiwan with war games and missile tests in 1995 and 1996, public confidence was badly shaken, sending the nation's hypersensitive financial markets into a tailspin and taking a heavy toll on its robust export-dependent economy.
Taiwan's weapons shopping list this year highlights its fears and anxiety. Also on the wish list are up to 70 Boeing AH-64D Apache Longbow attack helicopters, Harpoon anti-ship missiles, HARM anti-radiation missiles and eight to 12 Lockheed Martin P-3 maritime search and anti-submarine aircraft.
The AEGIS would give Taiwan's navy badly needed air defense capabilities as well as allow it to conduct joint warfare with the air force.
But at US$1 billion apiece, the destroyers could take eight years or more to put into service.
"AEGIS-based ships could become totally useless for us seven or eight years later," said KMT lawmaker Ting Shou-chung (
And even then Taiwan may not have the ability to man them.
"If you ask me: `Do we have the kind of high-quality, well-trained professionals to operate the AEGIS?' The answer is no. That, I would say, is most worrying," said military expert Holmes Liao (廖宏祥).
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