Taipei Times: How do you think the recent dispute over the collision between a Chinese fighter jet and a US spy plane will finally be resolved?
Ruan Ming (阮銘): In the end China's leaders will give in. Right now the way that China's leaders handle problems is much like the Soviet Union [did] in the past ... When Mao Zedong (毛澤東) talked with [US President Richard] Nixon in the past he would first give his bottom line and stick to it. China's leaders now are more like [Andrei] Gromyko [the Soviet Union's foreign minister between 1957 and 1985] who would always make a fuss [when handling situations] and call names. But in the end they give in. ... Jiang Zemin (江澤民) is not like Mao ... he'll first appear to be really tough and if the individual he's dealing with is someone like Japan's leaders or [former US President Bill] Clinton he will be able to take advantage of the situation. ... But now he's dealing with someone like [US President George W.] Bush who is also tough, and he'll eventually give in.
Looking back at what happened, at first China was saying the US had to admit it was wrong, apologize and take complete responsibility for the accident ... but in the end Bush would not do that. Instead he said that he was "very sorry" because of the pilot's life, which was lost. And then Jiang acts like Ah-Q [a character in one of Lu Xun's (
TT: Could the US' tough approach have a negative impact on US-China relations and stability in the region?
Ruan: Obviously it's different from the direction that [former US President Bill] Clinton took when he was in power. Clinton raised China's position extremely high, he considered China to be Asia's most important force, a strategic partner, even placing China above Japan.
Now Bush's approach will obviously change this arrangement, but this doesn't necessarily mean that the US and China will become like the US and Cuba. No way.
I believe Bush has been very clear. As far as economic affairs go, the US and China are partners. So, with things like China's entrance into the World Trade Organization, the US is still supportive. This is something that both sides need. The US needs this and so does China.
But Bush feels that, despite these relations in the economic arena, there is no reason to give way in other areas.
In the past, Clinton was willing to give more in these other areas -- like with human rights and with China-Taiwan relations -- almost to the extent that whatever China wanted he would give them.
And now, with Bush it's clear that's going to be different ... like with arms sales to Taiwan. It's not going to be whatever China wants. The US won't say "China doesn't want us to sell this, so we can't sell it."
More importantly is the [new administration's] shift in its global strategy. Bush sees that the threat from Russia is no longer a concern, Europe can take care of its own problems and so the US should use its energy to contain a newly emerging superpower.
The reason why China's power has expanded over the past few years has a lot to do with Clinton and this is something that Bush will change. To keep China from using its military force to threaten Asia and the Pacific region ... I believe this will be very effective. One of the signs of how this is working is Lee Kuan Yew (
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