Chu, a visiting fellow at the East-West Center in Honolulu, said China would retaliate with a "large increase" of missiles aimed at Taiwan.
Beijing would also halt non-proliferation talks, suspend military-to-military ties and might stop coordinating with Washington on North Korea and other issues, Chu said in an e-mail reply to Reuters.
"Airspace is just a small sovereignty matter," he said of the unauthorized emergency landing on Hainan that became a sticking point in the 11 days of the Hainan standoff. "Taiwan is the biggest sovereignty matter to the Chinese," he said.
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