Following the end of the 11-day standoff between Beijing and Washington over the collision between a US spy plane and a Chinese fighter, analysts in Taipei yesterday expressed mixed views about what the future holds for Sino-US relations in the wake of the incident.
Lin Cheng-yi (林正義), Director of the Institute of European and American Studies at Academia Sinica, sounded a note of pointed concern.
"What I am really worried about is that the trend for each side to perceive the other as an enemy has become more and more obvious," Lin said in a panel discussion held in Taipei yesterday morning.
"China especially has to understand that recent opinion polls conducted in the US indicate that many Americans say they feel that China poses a greater threat to the US than Iraq or Russia," Lin said.
Despite the release of the 24 American crew members held in Hainan, the incident looks set to further destabilize Sino-US relations, and limit the scale of military exchange between the two sides, Lin added.
Some analysts thought otherwise.
Chang Ling-chen (張麟徵), a professor in the department of political science in National Taiwan University, said although Sino-US relations were now at a low ebb as a result of the standoff, they would "fluctuate but progress forward inexorably." After all, China and the US have many common interests "as intricate as an interlaced spider's web," Chang said.
Chang said the ending of the diplomatic impasse could offer both sides an opportunity to re-examine the future handling of their bilateral relations.
Meanwhile, Lin also said that the early end to the stand-off lessened the chances of a sale of AEGIS-equipped destroyers to Taiwan.
"Without China continued detaining the American crew, Taiwan can expect to gain little out of the clash in terms of its hoped for arms purchase from the US," Lin said.
"Although the US and Taiwan have said that the US arms sale to Taiwan is a separate issue from the standoff, China will continue to link the two issues. In its propaganda war against the US arms sale to Taiwan, China will also remind the US of its growing power in order to gain US concessions over its arms sales to Taiwan," Lin said.
The two sides are scheduled to begin talks on April 18 in San Francisco on the fate of the aircraft, which is still detained in China, and measures to avoid similar incidents in the future. Five days later, on April 24, the US is scheduled to announce its decision on this year's arms sales package at a meeting with Taiwanese representatives.
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