Tensions across the Taiwan Strait are about the same as they were a year ago, despite the continued Chinese military buildup facing Taiwan in the Fujian area, the US' Pacific military commander, Admiral Dennis Blair, told a congressional committee.
The military balance across the Strait is "stable" and has not yet been altered by the missile buildup, Blair, Commander in Chief of the US Pacific Command, told a hearing of the Senate Armed Services Committee on the Penta-gon's 2002 budget on Tuesday.
But he warned China that its missile buildup, if it goes on long enough, will "force a response" militarily from the US.
Blair, who held talks in Beijing with Chinese leaders last week, also said the Chinese buildup will require an "enhancement" of Taiwan's military strength, but he did not say how this might affect the weapons package the Bush administration will sell to Taiwan next month.
He gave no indication of the administration's thinking regarding its decision on whether to sell Taiwan four destroyers equipped with sophisticated AEGIS radar and battle management systems.
Over the past several years, China has engaged in a steady buildup of its coastal missile force facing Taiwan, with Western estimates putting the number of short and medium-range ballistic missiles at 300 in and around Fujian Province. China is said to be adding 50 missiles a year of the CSS-6 and CSS-7 type.
Blair called this "the most destabilizing part" of the Chinese buildup against Taiwan.
"I've told the Chinese directly on numerous visits, including the one last week, that the buildup of these missiles, which presently are weapons of destruction and terror, not of military significance, but as their numbers increase and as their accuracy improves, become militarily significant, will force a response by the United States eventually" to maintain Taiwan's defense, Blair said.
"My overall assessment is that for the near term, the balance across the [Strait] is stable," he said. He also said that cross-strait tensions, despite the buildup, are the same as they were a year ago.
Washington's aim is to maintain the current balance in the Strait, and that the balance is "well attainable" under present conditions, Blair said. While China has built up its forces, there have been improvements in Taiwan's armed forces that have offset the Chinese moves.
To further maintain the balance, "there has to be an enhancement of Taiwan's capabilities through a combination of what they buy from us, what they manufacture themselves, and what they buy from others," he said.
"China right now cannot be successful in aggressing and therefore coercing Taiwan," he said. "The Seventh Fleet in conjunction with the other forces that I can bring to bear can ensure that China would not be successful," he said.
Blair played down US concerns over the introduction into the Chinese coastal fleet of Russian-made Sunburn missiles that can destroy an aircraft carrier.
"The carriers in the Taiwan Strait can carry out their jobs, Sunburn missiles or no Sunburn missiles," he said.
He added that China is having "mixed success" with the weapons they are buying from Russia, especially in the areas of logistical support, training and integrating with other systems.
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