China's defense budget hike this year sent a disturbing message to the US and could force Washington to take a stronger line on warning Beijing not to use military coercion against Taipei, said Kurt M. Campbell, former US deputy assistant secretary of defense for Asia and Pacific affairs, in Taipei yesterday.
"This substantial increase in military spending sends a troubling message," said Campbell, who was the chief Asian security official at the Pentagon between 1995 and last year, when commenting on Beijing's March 6 announcement that it will increase this year's military spending by 17.7 percent.
Campbell argued that many of China's concerns underlying its decision were "inappropriate."
"The idea that the US is out to make China an enemy is just not correct. There are of course some on the right in the US who believe that China is a potential problem or an actual one. But most Americans want a good relationship with China," Campbell said.
Campbell said the Bush administration might follow a harder line toward Beijing.
"The most immediate change that you'll see in the Bush administration will be a very strong line when it comes to making clear to Beijing that military [buildup] is not in the interest of any player in Asia, particularly as we appear to be on the verge of some very difficult economic and commercial times," Campbell said.
"We need to focus our attention on those issues, and not on the [potential threats] associated with military and missile buildups toward Taiwan," Campbell added.
Although Chinese Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan (唐家璇) on March 6 denied any link between the spending hike and China's policy toward Taiwan or US plans for a missile defense system, the sharp rise was perceived as provocative both in Taipei and Washington.
Campbell, senior vice president of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) as well as the Director of the International Security Program under the CSIS, was in Taipei for the organization's 2001 round-table discussion yesterday. The meeting was sponsored by Chinatrust Commercial Bank as well as by CSIS and has been perceived over the years as one of the major "track two" efforts between Taipei and Washington.
Campbell said that although the Bush administration has yet to complete its diplomatic strategy policy review, one could expect to see a stronger desire on the part of the Bush administration to send a firm message to Beijing.
"The message essentially underscored that we want a good relationship with Beijing, we want to create economic and commercial opportunities, and we want political dialogue. But the US will not stand up or allow coercion or provocative military actions against Taiwan," Campbell said.
While some in the Bush administration see the US-Japan military alliance as the bedrock of security in the Asia-Pacific region, Campbell had his reservations.
"I think many of them are a bit rhetorical, if I may say. I think that many in the Clinton administration focused on the US-Japan relationship. But let's keep in mind that the real issues between the US and Japan -- and indeed Japan and the world -- apparently are not political issues or security issues. They are economic issues," he said.
Japan's current economic and political crises could make the US-Japan alliance even more fragile, he added.
"We have to be very worried about Japan's seeming inability to solve its economic and commercial difficulties. I think the root of that is of course political matters. ... The hope is that we'll see some improvement soon. But personally I am not terribly optimistic. I think it's likely that things are going to get a lot worse in Japan before they get better," he added.
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