Chinese official's comments stun Taiwan observers

A senior Chinese official for Taiwan affairs, Zhou Mingwei (周明偉), arrives in Washington today for four days of talks with administration officials, members of Congress and others.

The visit comes after a stopover in New York punctuated by a steely hardline on issues such as unification, US arms sales and President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) government.

The tone of his remarks in New York stunned officials and academics alike, and observers say Zhou will have to moderate his stance in Washington if he expects to gain any positive results from the visit.

In public and private meetings in New York, Zhou, who is the deputy director of the State Council's Taiwan Affairs Office, warned explicitly that Taiwan will face a war with China if unification is not realized.

While Xinhua News Agency quoted Zhou as saying in an open New York meeting that "the only alternative to unification is war," sources told the Taipei Times that Zhou was equally as firm in his comments in private meetings.

"He talked about how many people in Taiwan and outside scholars have raised with Chinese officials the issue of what benefits Taiwan would get from accepting the `one China' principle," said one source familiar with the private New York meetings. "And he just said, explicitly, that the main benefit that everyone involved would get from Taiwan accepting the one China principle is that it would mean no war.

"He demonstrated no good will, no flexibility," the source said. "There were many references to Taiwan not really demonstrating any sincerity or good will," despite moves by Chen since his inauguration to soften his pre-election stance, the source said.

"He kept falling back on the fact that this is a DPP government, the DPP charter has not changed, the DPP still will not renounce independence, and that it is insulting to China that unification is only a `possible option' to Chen Shui-bian, when it is the only option."

Zhou also dismissed the "small three links" (小三通) as "nothing," the source added.

On arms sales, Zhou said he "wants to put to rest this `preposterous' notion put forward by some, that a secure Taiwan is in a better position to be flexible and to deal with China. His argument was that the notion is so entirely wrong. `You are helping to split us, you're hurting unification and it's violating the [three] communiques,' [he said]."

Washington sources were unable to explain Zhou's hard line, noting that his boss, Vice Premier Qian Qichen (錢其琛), has been quoted in recent months as trying to offer an olive branch to Taiwan on the resumption of cross-strait dialogue. Qian is scheduled to visit Washington late next month.

Observers said that Zhou must be prepared to deliver a different message in Washington if his trip is to be successful.

"What he said in New York was so unhelpful and so inconsistent with what they said the purpose of this visit was, that if he speaks that way in Washington, they are guaranteed to have an unsuccessful visit," one Taiwan scholar said.

"If anything, it will probably stiffen the spines of people here who are predisposed to opposing China's objectives, and will probably lessen the value of China's concerns [when the US] contemplates arms sales to Taiwan, or other policies concerning Taiwan."

Zhou is scheduled to meet with National Security Council officials, acting Secretary of State Alan Larson and Deputy Assistant Secretary for East Asian Affairs Darryl Johnson. He will also meet with officials at the Defense and Commerce Department, the US Trade Representative and the House International Relations Committee.