Former US State Department spokesman Alan Romberg said in a recent article on cross-strait relations that the Bush administration should go beyond publicly urging Taipei and Beijing to seek "meaningful dialogue" by privately offering to facilitate it.
Such a move would help the administration avoid the "trap of mediation," Romberg wrote in the most recent newsletter published by the Pacific Forum CSIS, the Pacific section of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Pacific Forum CSIS is headed by James Kelly, who is a possible candidate for the post of assistant secretary of state in the Bush administration.
Romberg, a senior associate at the Henry L. Stimson Center, a Washington-based think tank, added that if Beijing continues to refuse to enter into a dialogue with Taipei while continuing to upgrade its military, pressure will build on the US to "do more" for Taiwan in the way of arms sales and perhaps "in other ways."
Romberg advocated a balanced policy of heeding Chinese Vice Premier Qian Qichen's (錢其琛) warnings over the most sensitive arms sales to Taipei while at the same time cautioning Beijing about its arms buildup opposite Taiwan.
This will give the recent "positive signs" a chance to mature, he added, referring to Qian's claim that "anything can be discussed" and President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) recent reference to "a new mechanism for political integration."
However, he continued, differences in interpretation over these positions still exist, including Beijing's insistence on Taiwan's acceptance of the "one China" principle before anything can be discussed.
Romberg suggested that if the two sides can begin a "quiet, serious conversation" about these issues, Taipei and Beijing might realize without compromising on principles that "what seems so elusive today becomes more realistic tomorrow."
"In speaking of Taiwan's security at his confirmation hearing, Secretary of State Colin Powell focused primarily on the island's defense. That is understandable. But in the long run, Taiwan's well-being will depend on how Taipei and Beijing manage their political relationship," Romberg wrote.
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