If progress is to be made, he said, Beijing "has no choice but to deal with the current authorities in Taiwan, and to undertake any initiatives directly with them, not around them."
Roth also slammed Taipei for its misperceptions of Beijing's thinking. "It isn't clear to me that the new government in Taiwan fully understands the sensitivities of the cross-strait issues on the mainland side," he said. "There is still a tendency to believe that economic issues can outweigh political issues."
The Chen government sees the opening of the "small three links" as a "trial balloon" for the three big links of full trade, postal and transportation exchanges, he noted. But this "seems to ignore the fact that the mainland is unlikely to play this game until it has persuaded itself that Taiwan is willing to abide by what Beijing calls the `one China' principle."
Roth described recent statements by Chinese Vice Premier Qian Qichen (錢其琛) as "positive developments," saying they "certainly leave room for compromise."
Qian has repeated several times since early last year that both Taiwan and the mainland are parts of China.
Despite this, "it isn't clear to me that either side is actually prepared at this moment to engage and to reach agreement to resume cross-strait dialogue based on this formula," Roth said.
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