China factor blocks renewed air links with S Korea

Although one of Seoul's stated top diplomatic priorities this year is to resume air links between Taiwan and South Korea, thorny issues like pressure from China are still likely to get in the way, analysts and government officials say.

"Whenever I meet my friends from South Korea lately, a lot of them say that they really want to see the resumption of air links [between Taipei and Seoul] soon. But taking into account the various obstacles, we end up saying [to each other] -- let's keep our fingers crossed," Lee Ming (李明), professor at the department of diplomacy at National Chengchi University, said yesterday.

When asked about the progress on related talks, a foreign ministry official said yesterday: "Little progress ... The two sides are still seeking a final consensus."

Indeed, although South Korea's Foreign Minister Lee Joung-binn said last Tuesday that "resuming flights to Taiwan by our airlines will be a major diplomatic mission that should be resolved this year,'' Lee's Taiwanese counterpart pinpointed a major obstacle to the negotiation -- the China factor.

"South Korea has more reservations than us, and its main concern is China. South Korea currently has hope of improving its relations with North Korea, and China has had significant influence on North Korea. Under such circumstances, South Korea is very alert to China's reaction," Minister of Foreign Affairs Tien Hung-mao (田弘茂) said last Thursday.

While Taiwan has insisted that the governments from both sides have to get involved in related negotiations, South Korea has thought otherwise, saying that the deal has to be done through private channels and that the nature of the aviation accord should be purely non-official, analysts and officials said.

"Seoul simply doesn't want to irritate Beijing because any accord with Taipei that has an official nature could trigger a fierce response from China," Lee said.

Chu Song-per (朱松柏), research fellow at the Institute of International Relations at National Chengchi University, agreed with Lee.

"The impasse in the aviation talks centered around South Korea's fear of angering China by recognizing Taiwan as sovereign through the signing of any aviation accord with Taipei that would carry such an implication," Chu said.

Lee cited an example to illustrate South Korea's reservations. Seoul has refused to insert any terms -- such as "territory" into the drafted aviation accord -- that could imply Taiwan is a sovereign state, and prefers using neutral terms such as "area" instead, Lee said.

Admittedly, Lee noted, Taipei intended to seek some sort of "recognition" from Seoul of Taiwan being a sovereign state through related negotiations and through the signing of an aviation accord that carried this implication in a direct or indirect manner.

But in light of the China factor, analysts admitted it's unlikely that Seoul will make any major concession in the near future.

But Taiwan still enjoys certain bargaining chips as Seoul is more eager than Taipei to map out a solution to the issue considering the lucrative economic interests involved, analysts noted.

Since Taiwan cut off air links with South Korea in September 1992 -- in the wake of Seoul switching its diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing on Aug. 24 of the same year -- Korea has lost about US$200 million every year, Chu said.