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RAND urges more help for Taiwan

The US should move toward a firmer commitment that it would come to Taiwan's defense if the island were attacked by China without provocation by Taiwan, a prestigious American think tank said in Washington.

The California-based RAND organization made the recommendation as part of a report that would offer the president-elect a "National Security Action Plan" covering a broad range of foreign policy issues.

The report was prepared by a panel of more than 40 distinguished national security leaders and scholars, several of whom are active advisors to both Texas Governor George W. Bush, the Republican candidate, and Vice President Al Gore, the Democratic contender, and could become officials in the next administration.

The top national security aides of both contenders, Condoleezza Rice in the Bush camp, and Leon Fuerth in the Gore camp, also addressed the panel, and have received copies of the final report.

The panel reached consensus that "the status quo ought to be preserved," on Taiwan, said Zalmay Khalilzad, a RAND scholar who was largely responsible for drafting the China and Taiwan sections of the report on which the final recommendations emerged. "That is, no independence, no use of force, and if there is the use of force without provocation, that the US would come to Taiwan's defense," he told the Taipei Times.

"Constructive ambiguity has played a useful role so far [in Washington's policy toward Taiwan issues], but maybe the time has come to move toward a kind of increased strategic clarity on this issue," he said.

The report's recommended strategy would also oppose any unilateral move by Taiwan toward independence, and would move to "maintain strong, positive, and friendly relations with China."

Khalilzad said the recommended strategy would not be inconsistent with the Taiwan Relations Act that governs US-Taiwan interactions or the three communiques, in that it would not alter America's commitment to a "one China" policy.

However, "We're going a little further than we perhaps have gone before, in that we would come to Taiwan's defense if China attacked it," he said.

While the group did not address the issue of reunification directly, it did so indirectly in feeling that any reunification should come peacefully and if "the Taiwanese would decide voluntarily to do so."

The issue of arms sales to Taiwan did not come up, Khalilzad said. The panel did unanimously support a theater missile defense system for East Asia, but did not address the type of system or whether the shield should include Taiwan.

On the decision of how to respond to Chinese military action against Taiwan, the report said this:

"China's military weakness, the ambiguous US commitment to protect Taiwan against aggression, and Taiwan's own defense forces ought to suffice to deter Beijing from outright invasion for the next several years. But because of the emotional and nationalist element in Beijing's attitudes toward Taiwan, this assumption could prove unrealistic.

"Moreover, Chinese military options are not limited to an outright invasion but could entail harassment of Taiwanese shipping at sea, missile attacks on Taiwanese targets, or a forceful quarantine of the island's ports.

"Rather than conquer the island by main force, such attacks would be intended to panic the Taiwanese and, raising the costs of refusal, coerce them into making a reunification deal on Beijing's terms.

"Such a campaign would threaten not only Taiwan, but also US political and economic interests in East Asia. Chinese action against Taiwan would also present a military dilemma for your administration.

"If the US stood aside, its credibility in East Asia as a guarantor of stability would be severely damaged. If, on the other hand, the US did intervene, it might damage -- severely and perhaps for the long term -- the important economic and diplomatic relationship with China, possible setting the stage for a new Cold War with the world's most important rising power."

"Attempting to avoid such a confrontation should be a top priority for your administration," the group advised the next president.
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