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China is watching: Lam

China will maintain its "wait and see" attitude toward Taiwan for at least another two years before moving to accomplish any resolution of the cross-strait stalemate, a leading Hong Kong journalist and China scholar told a high-powered Washington audience on Wednesday.

Beijing will not take any "drastic" action toward Taiwan until the conclusion of the 16th Communist Party Congress in late 2002, Willy Wo-lap Lam (林和立), the former China editor of Hong Kong's South China Morning Post, said in an address to the American Enterprise Institute.

Lam was sacked earlier this month after he ran afoul of Beijing for his incisive anti-Beijing reporting. The Chinese leadership put pressure on the newspaper's owner, Malaysian businessman Robert Kuok, a major investor in China, to fire him after Lam worked for the daily for 12 years and gained the reputation as one of the best China reporters in the business.

Beijing will be too busy with its entry into the WTO, which is expected to come by early next year, and in preparations for a party congress, to consider actions against Taiwan, Lam said.

The wait and see policy Beijing adopted after Chen's surprising March 2000 presidential election victory has been "extended to the middle of next year," when the new US administration has sorted out its policy toward China and Taiwan, Lam said. "Beyond that, I would argue that the wait and see attitude will be expanded to late 2002, when the 16th party Congress is held," he said.

At the Congress, Chinese President Jiang Zemin (江澤民) has pledged to give up his presidency and other posts, but is maneuvering to retain power by keeping the chairmanship of the powerful Central Military Commission until 2007, Lam said. This would follow the example of Deng Xiaoping (鄧小平), who retained the top military post in the 1980s, from which he continued to wield tremendous power in Beijing despite his loss of his top party posts.

If Jiang fails to retain the military position, he is seeking to set up a National Security Council, which he would head in a bid to retain a top leadership position. Such a council would be patterned after the US' NSC, whose chief has a key policy role on foreign policy and security and military matters.

Jiang has committed himself to force a resolution of the Taiwan issue during his tenure in power, giving him a historical position along with Mao Tse-tung (毛澤東) and Deng in the Beijing pantheon, Lam noted.

It would be in the 2003-2007 period that Jiang would move to take decisive action toward Taiwan, he said.

During that period, Beijing "would turn its gaze toward Taiwan [with] a new sense of urgency," Lam said, but only if "the transition is successful" at the party congress. He did not say what would happen if the transition was less than successful in Beijing's eyes.

In the meantime, "I think the [Beijing] leadership is very happy with the situation in Taiwan," he said. He noted the falling Taiwan stock market, President Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) domestic political troubles and Beijing's success in courting Chen's enemies in the opposition parties.

Beijing is "happy that Chen Shui-bian is in such a beleaguered position and all the enemies of Chen Shui-bian are falling all over themselves to pay tribute to the Imperial Court in Beijing," he said.

In inviting visits by opposition party leaders, Beijing is "committed to the time-tested United Front policy," and is "co-opting everyone who can be co-opted," including the KMT, the People First Party and the New Party.

Lam predicted that KMT Chairman Lien Chan (連戰) will go to Beijing shortly and "will certainly have a long meeting with Jiang Zemin." Afterwards, PFP chief James Soong (宋楚瑜) will also go to Beijing, he predicted. Meanwhile, the dropping stock market and other economic problems will help Beijing "co-opt the business community" of Taiwan.

He noted that a group of Taiwan's "largest tycoons" have set up a group to press Chen to liberalize curbs on business dealings with China.

Such developments will rule out any Chinese military activities against Taiwan in the short term, he said.

"I think the United Front [activities] and economic ties are sufficient for Beijing to put Chen Shui-bian on the defensive. Beijing is hopeful that in the next legislative election in Taiwan in late 2001, the DPP will take a drubbing, and then in the presidential election of 2004, Beijing is hopeful that the KMT or the People First Party candidate will be elected," he said.
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