Despite China's rise as an economic giant, within three to five years its leadership will realize that the communist system cannot sustain the country's liberal economy, Taiwan's ambassador-at-large Jeffrey Koo (
"While the economic system liberalizes, political institutions [in China] are still in the grip of communism. Such a scenario is unsustainable. I believe within three to five years, [Chinese political leaders] will know that communism is not going to survive," Koo said in a speech in Tamkang University yesterday evening.
Koo, President of the Chinatrust Commercial Bank said China's communist political system would be unable to sustain the social impact of changes brought about by a market economy.
The veteran diplomat, who originally worked in the private sector, predicted that China would soon be swept by the rising democratic tide, moving Chinese to demand a better quality of life. Taiwan should watch China's domestic transformation closely, he said.
Koo, who has worked to improve Taiwan's diplomatic status by using his extensive connections in the private sector over the past three decades, also said that the three direct links with China are inevitable considering the current economic incentives China can offer to Taiwanese businesses.
"Starting the three direct links with China is a must if the proper arrangement surrounding Taiwan's national security is well in place," Koo said.
Koo also said the government must consider amending its current "no haste, be patient" (戒急用忍) policy which limits Taiwan's investment in China, given Taiwan and China's impending WTO entry.
"After all, despite the government's investment ban, some 50,000 Taiwanese firms still invest in China, don't they?" Koo said.
The veteran business tycoon cited market forces as the impetus to open trade links with China.
"In a place where profit-making is impossible, [Taiwanese firms] won't go even if the Ministry of Foreign Affairs begs them to. But where money making is possible, they'll get there even if it's by crawling," Koo said.
Speaking about Taiwan's constricted presence in the international community due to pressure from China, Koo said Taiwan's only means of raising its diplomatic profile is through "sustained economic development." Koo said Taiwan's comparative advantage lies in its human resources, which if maintained, will guarantee the country economic prosperity.
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