TT: So do you think that no matter who becomes the next US president, Taiwan independence would be impossible?
Lieberthal: Yes. If you look at public opinion in Taiwan, you would find out what I suggest as core issue there. On the one hand, people think a formal declaration of independence is dangerous and they do not want to go there. On the other hand, they do not want to give up their ability to determine their own fate, so that can be translated as maintaining the status quo.
I would have a hard time imagining that any US president would indicate the formal declaration of independence by Taiwan would be supported by the US because it would unfortunately produce the very instability and military conflict that all of us seek to avoid.
I understand that there is always a portion of people who will support independence, but the polls show very consistently that the majority do not want any action which could bring about a wild reaction from China.
However, I do not think any US president, either Al Gore or George W. Bush, would do anything to jeopardize the democratic freedom of people in Taiwan, so if their policies are different, it would be a difference in judgment how best to assure the situation that Taiwan would not be forced to accept an arrangement that would jeopardize its own freedom.
TT: What kind of balance do you think the US should require for the next round of arms sales talk in Washington?
Lieberthal: I have to leave it to the new government to explore that issue. I think the Clinton administration's arms sales policy to Taiwan is correct.
We are obligated by our law to provide Taiwan with sufficient defense capabilities, so we have to assess what Taiwan needs to be able to do militarily to make it very difficult for the Chinese to impose its will militarily on Taiwan. When you look at that, you have to be sensitive to the nature of the equipment and the capability that China has. Secondly there is the nature of the equipment and capability that Taiwan has. When you have a certain piece of equipment, it does not mean that you know how to use it, so currently Taiwan is devoted to the capability side.
Thirdly, there is a diplomatic context to this. If the object is to maintain Taiwan's security, then you do not want to sell things that would not be necessary to the security of Taiwan and would have the effect to increase the chance for China to use force.
There are sometimes items that fall into that category, they are not militarily necessary for Taiwan to maintain a sufficient capability.
There are always judgments to be made. You must have agreement from the Pentagon, the State Department and the White House. Ultimately, it is the president who has to make the decision if there is no agreement.
My personal experience in the government has only been two years, and as I remember, in the last two rounds of arms sales meetings, the final agreement was reached at the level of deputy. When you get down to the lower levels, they might have disagreements, but these people do not have the responsibility for the overall situation.
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