'China threat' hashed out at seminar

The so-called "China threat" (中國威脅論) concerns not only Taiwan, but also the US and the Asia-Pacific region and was the focus of heated debate at a seminar held by the Taiwan Peace Foundation (台灣和平基金會) yesterday.

Counselor to the Vice President Douglas Chen (陳滋松), who sat on yesterday's panel, argued that China, as a rapidly rising and preponderant nation, is likely to use force against Taiwan.

"Statistics show that China had an average of 2.74 military disputes every year between 1945 to 1992 and is the second most dispute-prone of all the major powers, including the US and Russia," Chen said adding that "this is the eleventh year that growth of China's military budget has exceeded 10 percent."

Chen also added that one major conclusion of the annual meeting of Chinese leaders in Beidaihe (北戴河會議) last month, was that China plans to transfer its military technology from central research centers to the People's Liberation Army (解放軍) in order to enhance its military capacity.

According to Hsimo Chang (張錫模), an assistant professor of interdisciplinary studies at National Sun Yet-sen University (中山大學), "war across the Taiwan Strait has the potential to initiate a global war." He based his analysis on studies of global, regional and internal warfare around the world.

"And at present, no solution has been found in the international community for avoiding civil conflict," Chang said.

The chairman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs' Research and Planning Board, Lo Chih-Cheng (羅致政), responded by suggested that two factors could be applied to avoid war.

"One is to help China become more democratic and the other is to reduce China's capacity to initiate a war across the Strait," Lo said. He added that balancing these two factors would create opportunities for Taiwan to avoid military conflict.

Lo explained that joining the US' proposed Theater Missile Defense system would theoretically increase Taiwan's defenses, thereby decreasing China's offensive capabilities.

Moreover, the "move bravely westward" policy (大膽西進), which encourages more economic engagement between Taiwan and China, should theoretically reduce China's motivation for waging a war against its trading partner.

Lo also used the cited so-called "Mcdonald's peace" to back up his theory.

"Some experts on international politics argue that countries with the most Mcdonald's fast food chains are the least likely to experience war," he said, but warned that this type of engagement was likely cause problems of its own.

In addition, electronic warfare and its possible consequences to manufacturing industries was hotly debated at yesterday's seminar.

Both Taiwan and China have entered a new economic era in the information age and, seminar attendees argued, this will help erase the frontline between China and Taiwan.