A former US nuclear submarine executive officer currently in Taipei yesterday warned that a naval blockade by China would pose much more of a military threat to Taiwan than ballistic missiles, but said he did not actually believe China is able to launch an effective blockade against Taiwan, especially under threat of US intervention.
"The PRC does not have the capability to invade Taiwan. That's the analysis in the West as well as here. However, the possibility of the PRC deploying a blockade of Taiwan is a little more likely, particularly by submarines," said retired Captain James T. Bush.
"A [naval] blockade is a more reasonable scenario. It is the most logical thing for China to do. [Taiwan] is very dependent on trade," Bush said.
Bush, a former executive officer of a US nuclear submarine and now a member of the US-based World Affairs Council of America, made the remarks at a panel discussion between members of the council and a local strategic think-tank called the Society for Strategic Studies ROC.
If a blockade were to occur, Bush said, the US is very likely to step into the conflict between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait.
"It is not unreasonable to me that the US will send its navy to break the blockade to show it is not an effective one. We could escort ships into Kaohsiung and Keelung ports. I think it is a reasonable thing for the US to do," Bush said.
According to Bush, a missile threat is less of a threat than a naval blockade, which he envisioned as Beijing's most likely strategy for attacking across the Taiwan Strait.
"The missile threat is not a significant military threat. China cannot militarily defeat Taiwan by launching missiles. In addition, Taiwan already has Patriot missiles from the US. You already have weapons to defeat air attacks," he told panel members. "Our involvement in the defense of Taiwan is already there."
A retired rear admiral of the Taiwan navy, speaking at the panel discussion, said a blockade is only one of the options which China could use in mounting an attack against Taiwan.
"China has many other options to choose from. As a matter of fact, China does have the ability to invade Taiwan. It can choose to use blockade and missile attacks at the same time," said retired Rear Admiral Liu Ta-tsai (
"A naval blockade starts at the moment of its announcement. China has many submarines available to launch such an operation," Liu said.
Wei Yung (
"A naval blockade of Taiwan is not just a matter between Taiwan and China. It will involve many other countries. It amounts to acting against the international community. It means war," Wei said.
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