Lien's mainlander Achille's heel

KMT candidate Lien Chan yesterday concentrated his efforts courting support from "waishengren" (mainlanders, 外省人), although it is widely believed that in this election, independent candidate James Soong (宋楚瑜) is the most favored candidate among those who -- or whose ancestors -- retreated from China with the KMT in 1949.

Attending a gathering of mem-bers from various "hometown associations" (同鄉會) from Chinese provinces yesterday, Lien emphasized aspects of his background that related to China.

"Although I am a member of the ninth generation of my family in Taiwan, I was born in Xian, Shaanxi province. And due to the war, I changed primary schools four times -- from Xian, to Chongqing, and to Taiwan -- during my childhood," Lien said.

"My own and my family's life experiences have involved most of the Chinese provinces. I believe this kind of life experience is unique among all the candidates in the election," he said.

Yesterday's luncheon was attended by over 1,500 members of 28 hometown associations in China. Most of people present, being first-generation mainlanders, were elderly.

Much of the discussion of the voting intentions of "waishengren" has so far focused on the community of military veterans and families. This community has long been considered loyal to the KMT. But in this election, it has become obvious to most observers that the majority of mainlanders support Soong for president.

On the same day as the luncheon yesterday, the KMT's Huang Fuhsing (黃復興) branch, a special branch of the KMT whose members consist of military veterans and their families, published a newspaper advertisement appealing to its members, calling on them to choose KMT candidates for the sake of national security and stability.

During his speech yesterday, Lien also stressed that the KMT is a party which has undertaken many "historical missions" not only by creating the ROC, but also by ensuring its continued existence and prosperity -- an apparent attempt to attract his audience's approval on an emotional level.

One analyst, however, was not optimistic about such efforts.

"In my view, the proportion of `waishengren' votes the KMT can get is around 40 percent at most, while the rest will go to Soong," said Wu Tung-yeh (吳東野), a political analyst at National Chengchi University.

Although the KMT has claimed it can collect more than 50 percent of the vote among military veterans and their families, comments like Wu's are commonly seen in the local media.

"Most mainlanders are anti-Lee Teng-hui (李登輝)," said Wu, "and although Lien has been saying that he will act as his own man, many are suspicious of this."

During recent visits by Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) -- a popular mainlander KMT political figure -- to military communities on Sundays, some community members told Ma that the precondition for them to vote for Lien was that Lee abdicates from the KMT chairmanship before the election.

"This kind of sentiment is unlikely to change much before March 18," Wu said.

As for the so-called "dump-save" effect (棄保效應), or "strategic voting," officials in Lien's camp have expressed hopes that mainlanders will vote for Lien instead of Soong in order to prevent the DPP's Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) from being elected.

Chen is regarded by many as advocating Taiwan Independence.