Former US congressman Stephen Solarz says that despite lobbying by China to block possible US Senate passage of the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act (TSEA), the bill may have enough support to pass.
It is highly unlikely, however, that the act could muster the necessary two-thirds majority to override an expected presidential veto.
Solarz, who has been a supporter of Taiwan's democratic movement and is involved in lobbying for Taiwan on Capital Hill, told the Taipei Times that there is a chance the TSEA could pass with half of the Senate supporting the bill.
"I am hopeful the overwhelming majority support in the House will impact the Senate," Solarz said.
"It would be unfortunate if the TSEA is vetoed. It would send the message to Beijing that friends of Taiwan in Washington are not in a shape to influence policy and mislead Beijing into thinking it can push Taiwan around," he said.
The House of Representatives voted 341-70 earlier this month in favor of the bill to strengthen bilateral military ties with Taiwan.
Since the passage of the bill in the House, China's ambassador to the US, Li Zhaoxing (李肇星), has sent out letters to all 100 senators saying the TSEA threatens the very basis of US-China relations.
The fate of the bill is now in the hands of Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott -- a Republican from Missouri -- who said the bill would not be up for a vote until after Taiwan's presidential election on March 18th.
"The supporters of the TSEA are waiting for the right time when chances of passing the bill would be at its highest," Solarz said.
Political analysts said that the TSEA would serve in part to deter possible Chinese military action against Taiwan -- such as the lobbing of missiles into Taiwanese waters as happened during Taiwan's 1996 presidential election.
In his meeting with DPP presidential candidate Chen Shui-bian (3?糮? yesterday, Solarz pledged to garner more support from Democratic senators for the bill.
He asked whether Chen, if elected, would abandon or negotiate under the "two states" framework with China -- to which Chen fudged his answer, saying he would deal with Beijing on the basis of "equality, peaceful resolution and no preconditions on future relations."
Solarz suggested that if elected, Chen, as president, should send high level delegations to Washington and Tokyo to clearly explain his cross-strait policies and use his newly gained status to ease tension and promote a new understanding with Beijing.
"It would be unforgivable if the US does not come to the aid of Taiwan [in the event of an attack from China,]" Solarz said.
"Let them [the US public] know that it is China and not Taiwan who is responsible for the hostility," he added.
A long-time supporter of democracy and human rights in Asia, Solarz was a fierce critic of the KMT when Taiwan was under martial law.
Both KMT presidential candidate Lien Chan (3s戰) and independent candidate James Soong (宋楚瑜) declined his request for meetings due to scheduling conflicts.
Solarz, the vice president of the International Crisis Group (ICG) -- a non-government crisis research organization -- was in Taiwan for its board meeting.
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