Feeling the pulse of southern voters

And while the KMT may be split, the DPP is far from united. Independent candidate and ex-DPP leader, Hsu Hsin-liang's (許信良) New Tide faction of the party may take valuable votes away from Chen's Formosa faction.

Can Lien win the south?

Chen Ming-tze (陳明智), senior secretary to DPP Kaohsiung County Commissioner Yu Cheng-hsien, thinks that Lien will win in the south -- an incredible admission, since if the DPP loses in Chen's heartland, they have no chance of taking Chen to the presidential office.

In Kaohsiung County, he predicts that out of 860,000 registered voters, 240,000 will vote for Lien, 230,000 for Chen, and 130,000 for Soong.

Politics in Kaohsiung County, as is the case in several places, is divided politically by faction rather than by party -- a custom that has its roots in the martial law era when opposition parties were banned. Rival groups in local elections would wear different-colored clothing to distinguish themselves from each other.

The powerful "white" faction, according to insiders, is behind Lien. Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-ping (王金平), a member of the so-called "white faction," has considerable influence over politics in the county.

"The KMT's power base and ability to mobilize at the grassroots level will swing the vote in Lien's favor," Chen says.

But the County Commissioner himself disagrees. Yu said he believes Chen will win 41 percent in his territory.

This is a confident prediction since 38 percent is generally thought to be the winning figure.

Lin Long-rui, meanwhile, is a former mayor of Fengshan, where voter trends are believed to be representative of the rest of Kaohsiung County. He supports Lien and expects the candidate to win 45 percent of the vote there, with Chen coming in second with 35 percent.

But in what could be one of the many family splits caused by this election, his uncle -- Lin Yun-yuan (林淵源), the founder of the "white faction" in Kaohsiung County -- has bucked the faction to come out in support of Soong, saying he didn't want the next generation to live with the corruption and sleaze of past governments.

"Soong is the only man who can clean up the KMT," the senior Lin said.

But Chen could do well in Kaohsiung City on the back of the rising popularity of Frank Hsieh, who says he will begin building the long-awaited Kaohsiung MRT this year.

Residents of Tainan County, meanwhile, led by popular DPP County Commissioner Mark Chen (陳唐山), are also expected to support Chen.

On the other hand, George Chang (張燦洪), DPP mayor of Tainan, has put in what critics say has been a lackluster performance, and that he could take votes away from Chen as a result. Chang's neighbor, the popular Mark Chen, has been speaking at DPP rallies in Tainan instead of the mayor, but Chen is still expected to lose there.

Despite Lien's inability to stir up the kind of passionate support President Lee enjoys among southern voters, some KMT supporters still expect him to win in the south.

"The material advantages the KMT holds in capital, manpower and influence will be the decisive factors," one supporter said. "The south loves Chen, but he will have to wait until next time before he will win here."