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Feeling the pulse of southern voters

DPP presidential candidate Chen Shui-bian takes to the campaign stage in Pingtung in this file photo. Analysts are in disagreement over who has the edge in the south. PHOTO: FILE PHOTO, LIBERTY TIMES

It has been said that the ideal presidential candidate for southern Taiwanese voters should meet three conditions: be a native Taiwanese, have an "international outlook"and be able to work with Beijing.

According to the first requirement, either KMT presidential candidate Lien Chan (連戰) or DPP candidate Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) would be a favorite among southern voters, while independent candidate James Soong (宋楚瑜), who was born in China, would fare less well.

Lien's family comes from Tainan County but Lien himself was born in Xian in China and he is more closely associated with the power centers of Taipei. It is the other Tainan County scion Chen, who was actually born there, who is regarded as the true son of the south.

Voters in the south have a strong sense of Taiwanese identity and appear frustrated that Soong's popularity remains high in the region. Taiwanese from the south feel that they have been neglected by past administrations and hope to fix things by putting a southern-born man in the presidential office.

Soong has two strikes against him: his mainlander background and his recent financial scandal.

For these reasons, the fight in the south is between Chen and Lien.

China policy hobbles Chen

Chen has a relatively clean image, but there are concerns about his policies toward China and whether he can find enough capable people for his cabinet.

Chen has no high-profile economists or financial advisers in his camp, and many business leaders seem worried that he could bring instability, or even war, with China.

However, the general public regards Chen as a good financial manager because he grew up in a poor family and should know the importance of saving money. National financial stability has precedence over diplomatic stability abroad for many southern voters, according to a straw poll of voters.

In addition, Chen is the only presidential candidate who has proposed specific measures for the south. He has said that if elected, he would merge the municipal Kaohsiung administration with the city's port facility -- one of the largest in the world -- and build an industrial park for marine businesses.

He has also announced plans to build industrial parks for bio-chemical sciences in Pingtung County and high-tech industries in Kaohsiung County.

Even though the DPP has been gradually softening its pro-independence policy, Chen remains unpopular with mainlanders in the south. One Kaohsiung resident, a native of Shandong Province, said that Chen should forget about the mainlander vote.

"There are 100,000 natives of Shandong in Kaohsiung, but not one of them will vote for Chen," she said.

Chen will have to convince everyone, mainlanders and native Taiwanese alike, that he can work with Beijing before he is elected, according to political observers. Chou Shi-hsiung (周世雄), dean of the Mainland Affairs Department at National Sun Yat-sen University (NSYSU) in Kaohsiung, put it bluntly, asking: "Chen is a good man, but can you trust him?"

KMT background handicaps Lien

Lien, for his part, carries the stigma of old KMT corruption and nepotism, but he is arguably the best-educated and experienced candidate among the three main presidential hopefuls, having served as Minister of Foreign Affairs, premier and currently holding the post of vice president.

According to Gu Chang-yong (顧長永), a professor of political science at NSYSU, if Lien continues at third place in polls through late February, his chances of victory will be slim -- an argument for switching support to Chen rather than allowing Soong to win, according to observers.

A more likely scenario, according to critics such as Hong Dun-mo (洪墩謨), the dean of the social science department at NSYSU, the KMT will simply buy votes.

According to recent survey results, over 90 percent of voters believe the same thing.

But vote-buying could cost the KMT support in other areas.

Lin Long-rei (林龍瑞), a former mayor of Fengshan City near Kaohsiung, said the KMT dare not attempt any tactics that could cause a backlash from the current "anti-black gold" lobby.

Instead, some say Lien will focus attention on undecided voters.

"These hidden votes will be decisive for Lien," says Liu Hsien-tong (劉憲同), a KMT legislator from Kaohsiung, who believes Lien will win the March 18 election on the support of "floating voters."

Another potential windfall for Lien is President Lee Teng-hui's (李登輝) personal popularity, especially in southern Taiwan where he enjoys great influence.

Chu Wen-shen (朱文森), the KMT's election committee coordinator in Kaohsiung, hinted that if Lee were to offer to step down from the party chairmanship, this would heal the rift in the KMT and bring back old-guard heavyweights such as Hau Pei-tsun (郝柏村) and Hsu Li-rong (許歷農), taking Soong's supporters out from under his nose.

James Soong has Hakka support

As for Soong, critics say his ability to lead and to put together a good government has been compromised by the tainting of his once-clean image by the recent financial scandals.

But at the same time, Soong gained a great deal of respect from people in the south while he was provincial governor.

Lien Chan supporter Lin Long-rei admits Soong was good for Fengshan, and DPP Kaohsiung County Chief Yu Cheng-hsien (余政憲) has said he appreciated how Soong's generosity helped him improve infrastructure in his county.

However, despite the fact that Annette Lu (呂秀蓮), Chen's running mate, is of Hakka heritage, it is Soong who enjoys unrivaled popularity among the large Hakka minority in Taoyuan, Hsinchu and Miaoli counties. Soong built up this important base of support during his term as provincial governor.

Tactical voting

Some critics have argued that in 1994, Chen's mayoral victory in Taipei was made possible because the KMT dropped support for their official candidate, Huang Ta-chou (黃大洲), and switched to Chen to stop New Party candidate Chao Shao-kang (趙少康) from winning.

Moreover, recent speculation in the media has suggested similar tactics could be used against Soong, the front runner who enjoys wide mainlander support. If a Soong victory looked likely, pro-Taiwanese forces in the KMT and DPP could unite voters by dropping either Chen or Lien and supporting the other candidate to defeat him.

Kaohsiung's DPP Mayor, Frank Hsieh (謝長廷), disagrees. He has suggested that such tactical maneuvers could backfire by further solidifying the Soong vote. Hsieh was referring to the 1987 South Korean presidential election, in which Roh Tae Woo beat his two reformist opponents while they squabbled over who should step aside.

"Debating about dropping one man and supporting another only serves to spilt the votes even more," Hsieh said. "Chen and Lien are different candidates, and Chen's supporters should not think about switching their vote to Lien."

And while the KMT may be split, the DPP is far from united. Independent candidate and ex-DPP leader, Hsu Hsin-liang's (許信良) New Tide faction of the party may take valuable votes away from Chen's Formosa faction.

Can Lien win the south?

Chen Ming-tze (陳明智), senior secretary to DPP Kaohsiung County Commissioner Yu Cheng-hsien, thinks that Lien will win in the south -- an incredible admission, since if the DPP loses in Chen's heartland, they have no chance of taking Chen to the presidential office.

In Kaohsiung County, he predicts that out of 860,000 registered voters, 240,000 will vote for Lien, 230,000 for Chen, and 130,000 for Soong.

Politics in Kaohsiung County, as is the case in several places, is divided politically by faction rather than by party -- a custom that has its roots in the martial law era when opposition parties were banned. Rival groups in local elections would wear different-colored clothing to distinguish themselves from each other.

The powerful "white" faction, according to insiders, is behind Lien. Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-ping (王金平), a member of the so-called "white faction," has considerable influence over politics in the county.

"The KMT's power base and ability to mobilize at the grassroots level will swing the vote in Lien's favor," Chen says.

But the County Commissioner himself disagrees. Yu said he believes Chen will win 41 percent in his territory.

This is a confident prediction since 38 percent is generally thought to be the winning figure.

Lin Long-rui, meanwhile, is a former mayor of Fengshan, where voter trends are believed to be representative of the rest of Kaohsiung County. He supports Lien and expects the candidate to win 45 percent of the vote there, with Chen coming in second with 35 percent.

But in what could be one of the many family splits caused by this election, his uncle -- Lin Yun-yuan (林淵源), the founder of the "white faction" in Kaohsiung County -- has bucked the faction to come out in support of Soong, saying he didn't want the next generation to live with the corruption and sleaze of past governments.

"Soong is the only man who can clean up the KMT," the senior Lin said.

But Chen could do well in Kaohsiung City on the back of the rising popularity of Frank Hsieh, who says he will begin building the long-awaited Kaohsiung MRT this year.

Residents of Tainan County, meanwhile, led by popular DPP County Commissioner Mark Chen (陳唐山), are also expected to support Chen.

On the other hand, George Chang (張燦洪), DPP mayor of Tainan, has put in what critics say has been a lackluster performance, and that he could take votes away from Chen as a result. Chang's neighbor, the popular Mark Chen, has been speaking at DPP rallies in Tainan instead of the mayor, but Chen is still expected to lose there.

Despite Lien's inability to stir up the kind of passionate support President Lee enjoys among southern voters, some KMT supporters still expect him to win in the south.

"The material advantages the KMT holds in capital, manpower and influence will be the decisive factors," one supporter said. "The south loves Chen, but he will have to wait until next time before he will win here."
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