Feeling the pulse of southern voters

It has been said that the ideal presidential candidate for southern Taiwanese voters should meet three conditions: be a native Taiwanese, have an "international outlook"and be able to work with Beijing.

According to the first requirement, either KMT presidential candidate Lien Chan (連戰) or DPP candidate Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) would be a favorite among southern voters, while independent candidate James Soong (宋楚瑜), who was born in China, would fare less well.

Lien's family comes from Tainan County but Lien himself was born in Xian in China and he is more closely associated with the power centers of Taipei. It is the other Tainan County scion Chen, who was actually born there, who is regarded as the true son of the south.

Voters in the south have a strong sense of Taiwanese identity and appear frustrated that Soong's popularity remains high in the region. Taiwanese from the south feel that they have been neglected by past administrations and hope to fix things by putting a southern-born man in the presidential office.

Soong has two strikes against him: his mainlander background and his recent financial scandal.

For these reasons, the fight in the south is between Chen and Lien.

China policy hobbles Chen

Chen has a relatively clean image, but there are concerns about his policies toward China and whether he can find enough capable people for his cabinet.

Chen has no high-profile economists or financial advisers in his camp, and many business leaders seem worried that he could bring instability, or even war, with China.

However, the general public regards Chen as a good financial manager because he grew up in a poor family and should know the importance of saving money. National financial stability has precedence over diplomatic stability abroad for many southern voters, according to a straw poll of voters.

In addition, Chen is the only presidential candidate who has proposed specific measures for the south. He has said that if elected, he would merge the municipal Kaohsiung administration with the city's port facility -- one of the largest in the world -- and build an industrial park for marine businesses.

He has also announced plans to build industrial parks for bio-chemical sciences in Pingtung County and high-tech industries in Kaohsiung County.

Even though the DPP has been gradually softening its pro-independence policy, Chen remains unpopular with mainlanders in the south. One Kaohsiung resident, a native of Shandong Province, said that Chen should forget about the mainlander vote.

"There are 100,000 natives of Shandong in Kaohsiung, but not one of them will vote for Chen," she said.

Chen will have to convince everyone, mainlanders and native Taiwanese alike, that he can work with Beijing before he is elected, according to political observers. Chou Shi-hsiung (周世雄), dean of the Mainland Affairs Department at National Sun Yat-sen University (NSYSU) in Kaohsiung, put it bluntly, asking: "Chen is a good man, but can you trust him?"

KMT background handicaps Lien

Lien, for his part, carries the stigma of old KMT corruption and nepotism, but he is arguably the best-educated and experienced candidate among the three main presidential hopefuls, having served as Minister of Foreign Affairs, premier and currently holding the post of vice president.

According to Gu Chang-yong (顧長永), a professor of political science at NSYSU, if Lien continues at third place in polls through late February, his chances of victory will be slim -- an argument for switching support to Chen rather than allowing Soong to win, according to observers.