"The point here is predictabi-lity," said Phillip Yang (楊永明), a cross-strait analyst and political science professor at National Taiwan University.
"If Chen is elected, uncertainty will be added to the shift in leaders which is something policy makers in Beijing don't want."
From a more pragmatic angle though, responding to Chen, would dilute China's overall energy.
"Then they would have to put unification before development, a dilemma of what to do first. I think their focus is still more on development," Yang added.
Vice Premier Qian Qichen (
Independent candidate and former DPP member Hsu Hsin-liang (
The US, having also expressed concern that it would have to deal with another cross-strait crisis similar to that in 1995-1996 when China fired missiles into shipping lanes near Keelung and Kaohsiung, has called on both sides to show restraint.
Stanley Roth, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, said Friday that Taiwan, along with the situation in Korea, was a "short term risk" because of the upcoming election.
"We hope that whoever is elected will handle the matter with the spirit of pragmatism and that there would be an effort to resurrect cross-strait dialogue," Roth said.
Yang said such pleas for self-restraint did not come as a surprise as the US was already caught off guard when the "state-to-state" pronouncement was first made.
"The US position is very clear here; it doesn't want Taiwan to be a `troublemaker' again," Yang said.
But analysts felt that presidential candidates were finding ways to keep "state-to-state" on the shelf from here on out -- to appease both China and the US.
"[Candidates] will not bring up `state-to-state' again, but keep it there as an understanding," Liu said.
Yang agreed, noting: "Candidates are developing a new language that will not trigger any reaction."
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