Candidates upholding `state-to-state' position

No matter how cross-strait ties are repackaged or redefined, it has became evident over the past week that the top contenders in the March election are unlikely to renounce the nation's new and controversial "state-to-state" interpretation of cross-strait relations, political analysts say.

The redefinition of the country's relationship with China as being "special state-to-state" in nature was made by President Lee Teng-hui on July 9 during an interview with a German radio network.

What the candidates are now trying to do, the analysts agree, is to find new modes of discourse that fit within the framework of "state-to-state" relations, but mitigate some of the corrosive effects the stance has had on relations with China.

"In general there is a consensus, no matter whether you are mainlander or native , that "state-to-state" is the place to start from," said Liu Pi-jong (劉?榮) an international relations professor at Soochow University and a negotiation strategist.

"No candidate will withdraw it, `state-to-state' is the bottom line," he added.

Joanne Chang, a cross-strait affairs analyst and Academia Sinica research fellow, agreed.

"No one can deny the Republic of China is a sovereign country. Every candidate -- aside from [the New Party's] Li Ao (李敖), who has expressed his support of China's `one country, two systems' [formula] has to think about the majority consensus," Chang said.

However, each of the leading candidates have put their own spin on the cross-strait issue.

Independent presidential candidate James Soong (宋楚瑜) supports a move that Taiwan and China sign a 30-year "mutual non-aggression peace treaty," which would be followed by a 20-year agreement basing relations on a European Union model.

Soong has proposed that cross-strait relations be based on a "quasi-international relationship under relevant sovereignty."

Soong's critics had expected him to reject "state-to-state" relations but he has stayed within its general framework, without being too explicit.

Lien Chan (3s戰), so far at least, has put his support behind "state -to-state" relations, but Chinese-language newspapers have said that Lien, rather than make any additional statements, was planning to not mention the phrase "state-to-state."

Sources close to Lien have said that he is currently weighing the option of announcing a more detailed clarification of his stance on cross-strait relations sometime shortly before or after Chinese New Year.

In late December, DPP candidate Chen Shui-bian (3?糮?/CHINESE>) promised to completely overhaul the Constitution if elected president. Chen said it should be clearly written into the Constitution that "Taiwan is an independent sovereign country."

Chen also stressed that the "fact" of Taiwan's sovereign independence could only be changed through the will of the people.

The US and China have both expressed concern over the March 18 presidential election, either directly or indirectly. Pressure on Taiwan is already beginning to mount, especially from China.

Over the past week, China has dropped some strong hints, leaking messages through the press that while Lien and Soong were acceptable candidates, Chen was not.

Comments were passed onto the press during an annual meeting of China's State Council's Taiwan Affairs Office.

Analysts say such concern is simply because leaders in China fear change.