No matter how cross-strait ties are repackaged or redefined, it has became evident over the past week that the top contenders in the March election are unlikely to renounce the nation's new and controversial "state-to-state" interpretation of cross-strait relations, political analysts say.
The redefinition of the country's relationship with China as being "special state-to-state" in nature was made by President Lee Teng-hui on July 9 during an interview with a German radio network.
What the candidates are now trying to do, the analysts agree, is to find new modes of discourse that fit within the framework of "state-to-state" relations, but mitigate some of the corrosive effects the stance has had on relations with China.
"In general there is a consensus, no matter whether you are mainlander or native , that "state-to-state" is the place to start from," said Liu Pi-jong (
"No candidate will withdraw it, `state-to-state' is the bottom line," he added.
Joanne Chang, a cross-strait affairs analyst and Academia Sinica research fellow, agreed.
"No one can deny the Republic of China is a sovereign country. Every candidate -- aside from [the New Party's] Li Ao (
However, each of the leading candidates have put their own spin on the cross-strait issue.
Independent presidential candidate James Soong (
Soong has proposed that cross-strait relations be based on a "quasi-international relationship under relevant sovereignty."
Soong's critics had expected him to reject "state-to-state" relations but he has stayed within its general framework, without being too explicit.
Lien Chan (
Sources close to Lien have said that he is currently weighing the option of announcing a more detailed clarification of his stance on cross-strait relations sometime shortly before or after Chinese New Year.
In late December, DPP candidate Chen Shui-bian (
Chen also stressed that the "fact" of Taiwan's sovereign independence could only be changed through the will of the people.
The US and China have both expressed concern over the March 18 presidential election, either directly or indirectly. Pressure on Taiwan is already beginning to mount, especially from China.
Over the past week, China has dropped some strong hints, leaking messages through the press that while Lien and Soong were acceptable candidates, Chen was not.
Comments were passed onto the press during an annual meeting of China's State Council's Taiwan Affairs Office.
Analysts say such concern is simply because leaders in China fear change.
"The point here is predictabi-lity," said Phillip Yang (楊永明), a cross-strait analyst and political science professor at National Taiwan University.
"If Chen is elected, uncertainty will be added to the shift in leaders which is something policy makers in Beijing don't want."
From a more pragmatic angle though, responding to Chen, would dilute China's overall energy.
"Then they would have to put unification before development, a dilemma of what to do first. I think their focus is still more on development," Yang added.
Vice Premier Qian Qichen (
Independent candidate and former DPP member Hsu Hsin-liang (
The US, having also expressed concern that it would have to deal with another cross-strait crisis similar to that in 1995-1996 when China fired missiles into shipping lanes near Keelung and Kaohsiung, has called on both sides to show restraint.
Stanley Roth, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, said Friday that Taiwan, along with the situation in Korea, was a "short term risk" because of the upcoming election.
"We hope that whoever is elected will handle the matter with the spirit of pragmatism and that there would be an effort to resurrect cross-strait dialogue," Roth said.
Yang said such pleas for self-restraint did not come as a surprise as the US was already caught off guard when the "state-to-state" pronouncement was first made.
"The US position is very clear here; it doesn't want Taiwan to be a `troublemaker' again," Yang said.
But analysts felt that presidential candidates were finding ways to keep "state-to-state" on the shelf from here on out -- to appease both China and the US.
"[Candidates] will not bring up `state-to-state' again, but keep it there as an understanding," Liu said.
Yang agreed, noting: "Candidates are developing a new language that will not trigger any reaction."
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