Lien just following the herd: analysts

Statements made on Friday by Vice President and KMT presidential hopeful Lien Chan (連戰), in which he offered to make a "journey of peace" to China if elected next year, is merely a repeat of noises previously made by the KMT, analysts said yesterday. It is just Lien's way of showing he's got the "right cards on the table," they said.

"Lien is just trying to prove that he is in the game," said Chen Ming-tung (陳明通), a political analyst at National Taiwan University.

On Friday, Lien told a group of reporters from Beijing and Hong Kong that he would travel to China either before or after his inauguration, and that if Chinese leaders did not want to meet with him there, he would be willing to do so "at a third location."

Lien also said that with what he called the "three no's" and "three yes's" of cross-strait conditions in place, any negotiations between both sides could be held.

L:ien's "three no's" include no unification, no independence, no enmity, while the "three yes's" are the peaceful handling of cross-strait relations, exchanges, and a "win-win mind-set."

President Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) made several previous offers to make a similar trip to China, and DPP presidential candidate Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) recently offered to travel to China and meet leaders there before he is inaugurated -- if he is elected.

"[Lien] wants to appear like he is supporting the status quo, without going beyond it," said Shih Chih-yu (石之瑜), a professor of political science at National Taiwan University.

The two analysts had different opinions on why Lien had suggested the trip.

Chen said Lien was just responding -- much as did independent candidate James Soong (宋楚瑜) -- to Chen Shui-bian's announcement that his cross-strait policy platform included opening partial direct links with China.

"President Lee's comments last week on the possible liberalizing of the ban on direct links after Taiwan enters the WTO, in addition to Lien's comments, are all a response to initiatives taken by Chen Shui-bian," Chen said. "If [a presidential hopeful] doesn't express an opinion on Chen's positions, then they will appear to not care about this big issue," he said.

Shih said he felt Lee and Lien could be trying to trick their opponents, or "draw the snakes out of the holes, (引蛇出洞)" as Chinese leader Mao Zedong (毛澤東) once said, to entice their opponents to make grander cross-strait commitments that could get them into trouble.

Shih said he believes that at some point during the campaign, China could step in as it did in 1996 -- by firing missiles into the Taiwan Strait or using other methods to pressure voters not to stray from the status quo.

At that point, Shih said: "If Chen and Soong appear more pro-China than [Lien's stance], they would appear overly sympathetic to the mainland."

Chen, however, said the possibility that candidates would over-extend themselves was unlikely.

"No one is willing to be too radical," he said.

According to the results of a recent survey released in the Chinese-language press, 58 percent of voters are unclear as to the cross-strait policies of the three main presidential candidates.